Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Conservatives drop to the upper limits of a minority in new Ipsos-Reid poll

Ipsos-Reid released a new poll yesterday, conducted for Global Television and Postmedia News and showing relative stability at the national level. But the statistically insignificant Conservative loss puts them just out of a majority government.

Compared to Ipsos-Reid's last poll conducted between February 23 and 27, the Conservatives have dropped three points but still lead with 40%. The Liberals are steady at 27%, while the New Democrats have picked up three points to stand at 16%.

This telephone survey has a sampling margin of error of +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. None of these shifts are statistically significant.

Note also that Ipsos-Reid does not prompt for the Green Party. As far as I am aware, they are the only polling firm that does not prompt the Green Party only. Nanos Research does not prompt for any of the parties, and has similar results for the Greens.

My own view is that prompting for the Green Party over-represents their support, while not prompting under-represents their support. They are just too hard to measure accurately. For that reason, I am glad that Ipsos-Reid has decided not to prompt the Greens as it balances the ledger a little more. With Nanos and Ipsos on one side, and the other pollsters on the other, hopefully we can achieve greater accuracy in pinpointing Green support.

In this poll, they stand at 5%, unchanged from late February. The Bloc Québécois is up one point to 11% nationally.

Also note the field dates for this poll: March 7 to 9. That makes it a week old, and a lot has happened in the past seven days. We have yet to really see whether or not the recent turmoil on Parliament Hill has had any effect.

A recent poll by the Canadian Association of Retired Persons indicated that older Canadians were leaving the Conservatives and shifting over to the Liberals. That may be the case, considering that the CARP poll was conducted on March 12 and 13, so not at the same time as this Ipsos-Reid poll. But Ipsos shows that, among Canadians aged 55 or older, 49% intend to vote Conservative, while only 24% support the Liberals.

There has been little change in Ontario, where the Conservatives have dropped two points to 43%. The Liberals are down one to 32%, while the NDP is up one to 15%. The Greens gained four points and now have 8% support.

There has been larger changes in Quebec, however. The Bloc Québécois is up five points and now leads with 46%, a real high for them. The Liberals have dropped six points to 21%, while the Conservatives are down four to 15%. I have yet to see enough to call it a real trend, but Tory support in Quebec seems to be on the decline. The NDP is up eight points to 14%, which jives a little bit more with recent polling than Ipsos's last result of 6% for the party.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up two points to 50%, followed by the Liberals at 28% (+7). We've seen a few polls now putting the Conservatives back up to their 2008 levels. The NDP is down three points to 19%, while the Greens are down five points to only 3%.

The Conservatives have slipped five points to 63% in Alberta, with the New Democrats gaining nine points to reach 19%. The Liberals are down six to 11%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down eight points but still lead with 51%. The Liberals make an improbable 18-point gain and now trail with 35%. The NDP is down four to 13%.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the Conservatives have dropped five points to 47%, ahead of the Liberals who are at 32% (-1). The NDP is up four to 16%.

With the results of this poll only, ThreeHundredEight projects the Conservatives win 25 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 21 in the Prairies, 58 in Ontario, five in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 154. That is exactly half of the seats in the House of Commons, giving them a pseudo-majority. It is a drop of 10 seats from Ipsos-Reid's last poll, however.

The Liberals win seven seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, seven in the Prairies, 33 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 71, a gain of five.

The Bloc Québécois wins 57 seats in Quebec. The federal parties are too low to challenge them in a lot of 2008's closest ridings.

The New Democrats win four seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, none in the Prairies, 15 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and four in Atlantic Canada for a total of 26. Despite gaining three points nationally, the NDP is down three seats from the last poll from Ipsos-Reid. This is primarily due to their poor polling numbers in British Columbia and the Prairies.

Ipsos-Reid also looked at several issues relating to the upcoming budget, scheduled to be announced on March 22. The results are somewhat contradictory.

First of all, 40% believe that the Opposition should vote for the "Harper budget", whereas 27% believe they should vote against it. Another 17% think they should wait and see what's in it. Unfortunately, Ipsos-Reid didn't crosstab these results by party support, but the numbers of those who feel that the Opposition should support the budget were very close to Conservative support levels in the six regions of the country.

If the budget is defeated, 40% will blame Stephen Harper and his party while 31% will blame Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals. That would seem to indicate that the who and the whys relating to the downfall of the government aren't very important.

As to what should be in the budget, Canadians want the government to spend on things but also reduce spending. Yes, that's right.

On the spending side, 54% believe that the government should make new investments, while 42% think there should be no new major spending.

Fully 92% support more funding for low-income seniors, and really, who would say no to that. Another 84% want to see the Canada Pension Plan expanded, while 91% want there to be more spending on health care.

At the same time, 66% of Canadians support cuts to the budget that would make it balance by 2015. Only 39% support corporate tax cuts, and a bare majority of 51% support more funding for National Defense.

On giving Quebec $2.2 billion for HST equalization, the one thing that could get the Bloc to vote with the government, only 29% of Canadians support the idea (64% of Quebecers support it, understandably).

It's difficult to make sense out of these numbers. Canadians want more government spending, particularly on seniors, health care, and the CPP. They are split on military spending. They don't want the government to give money to Quebec, however, or provide tax cuts to corporations. Nevertheless, they want the budget to be balanced by 2015. How all of these things would be possible is beyond me.

I suspect, though, that virtually all of the government's decisions on the budget have already been made. Clearly they want it to be presented, as they moved the Liberal opposition day to March 25, the latest possible date. It could be that this is an attempt to give the parties (i.e., the NDP) a chance to see the budget and vote for it, or it is just the opportunity for the Conservatives to present a budget they can campaign on. Probably, it is a little of both.


  1. One thing i find interesting here is the impact of not prompting for Green (though if I'm not mistaken Ipsos does prompt for "...or would you vote for some other party"). Obviously this causes their level of support to plummet to 5%. But its notable that if we compare the last two Ipsos polls post the "de-listing" of the Greens with the polls done before - the Green loss has been the Tory's gain and contrary to what most people have hypothesized, neither the NDP nor the Liberals seem to have benefited from the de-listing of the Greens. Of course this is probably just a coincidence and as the old saying goes "correlation does not imply causation". We know from past research that very, very, very few people who say they would vote Green have the Tories as their second choice. So I very much doubt that there is 5% of the Canadian population who were all set to vote Green but them when that choice was not offered to them, they figured "oh well, since I can't vote Green, I guess Stephen Harper's Tories are the next best thing!".

  2. Not sure on the logic there, DL - Greens actually do surprisingly well in traditionally conservative ridings, especially agricultural ones. Provincially in Ontario, agricultural concerns are behind the GPOs strong showing in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, where Shane Jolley finished a strong second. And federally, former party leader Jim Harris used to a Tory.

    Green is a potential protest vote in places like Alberta where Tories sweep anyway too - if you're not too pleased with the Tories or the alternatives, some park their vote in the Green camp.

    Not listing the Greens is ridiculous - clearly the Green Party is not at 3% in BC. It skews the numbers, and misrepresents the actual intentions of 10% of the voting population.

  3. The Greens may do well in a couple of "traditionally conservative seats" but that doesn't mean that they get votes from people who would otherwise vote Conservative. In fact while their support did go up in a few places in the Okanagan in BC etc...the Conservative vote went up in those seats as well. I think that sometimes you see a spike in the Green vote in supersafe Tory seats where people figure that rather than vote for a sacrificial lamb NOB running for the Liberals or a sacrificial lamb NOB running for the NDP - why not vote for a sacrificial lamb NOB running for the Greens.

    I can assure you that the 10% or so of people who voted Green last election in various downtown Toronto and Ottawa and Vancouver ridings - are overwhelmingly anti-Conservative voters.

  4. Michael,

    The claim that Ipsos' practice "skews the numbers, and misrepresents the actual intentions of 10% of the voting population" would be a lot more credible if the Greens had ever achieved election results close to that.

  5. I think a certain amount of people who would have voted Greens now that it's delisted say 'none of the above' or 'undecided', which is then factored out of the percentages. The CPC having the highest overall numbers will show the largest growth in such a scenario.

  6. Actually I wish Ipsos would go a step further and not prompt for any party. However, I agree with Eric that their level of "support" probably lies somewhere between the two extremes -- in the 7-8 range. But don't forget, many Green supporters are quite young and therefore don't bother going to the polls on election day. So likely the 5% is more indicative of their actual support during an election.
    And yes, I'm over my snit from yesterday.

  7. "Fully 92% support more funding for low-income seniors, and really, who would say no to that. Another 84% want to see the Canada Pension Plan expanded, while 91% want there to be more spending on health care."

    I hate people.

  8. Notice that in Éric's projections the Green party is finishing second in several Albera ridings. Yes, those are ridings where the Conservatives are polling over 70%, but that's still strong Green support.

  9. I say that Quebec can have there 2.2 billion when they get rid of the QST, and truly harmonize.

    You can't have your cake and eat it too.

    If Quebec allows their tax to be collected like Ontario, then I'll be all for compensating them. Until then it is an unreasonable demand, and that is why Canadians reject it.

    It's not that we "don't want the government to give money to Quebec". It's that we don't want to do a shady deal with the Bloc, just to get the budget passed.

    I'd rather strike a deal with the Dippers anyway, as I have expressed previously. They are ready to deal reasonably. The Bloc is not.

  10. The "Harper Government" gave $1.6 billion to BC to get the HST implemented there. Giving $2.2 billion to Quebec seems like a no-brainer.

  11. Ira the issue isn't who collects the tax (Ottawa is fine with Quebec doing it).

    The hold up is which items are exempt. They don't yet match so different items in Quebec are currently taxed at different rates.

  12. Eric:

    Recent polls, particularly the Ekos polls (who provide a major city breakout), seem to indicate that the Conservatives are now competitive in the city of Toronto. I would also expect considering the Ekos Vancouver breakout and general BC polling that the Conservatives are competitive in city of Vancouver ridings. Does Ekos consider Vancouver as the GVRD or the city of Vancouver only? Does Ekos consider Toronto as the city of Toronto only or the GTA? I ask because your seat projections continue to show that the Conservatives would not win a seat in the city of Toronto despite their favourable position in the Ekos poll nor would they win a seat in the city of Vancouver for the same reason. Could you please provide an explanation?



  13. GP,

    EKOS would be polling the CMAs, so the GRVD and the GTA. I imagine that much of the Conservative gains in those regions are not coming in the downtown ridings held by the Liberals and NDP.

  14. Hey Eric, not to point out something small, but that small "projected parliament" graphic with the represented seats (the squares) has the Bloc sitting at 56.

  15. Whoops. I must have given them the Liberal seats. Will fix.

  16. Ira: "The "Harper Government" gave $1.6 billion to BC to get the HST implemented there. Giving $2.2 billion to Quebec seems like a no-brainer."

    Indeed it is, and if Quebec implements the HST (or works out an arrangement so that the QST is defacto harmonized with the HST - which it isn't now), it won't be an issue. So far they haven't (although I've had discussions with Quebec finance officials who have all but said it's a done deal, they just have to work out the details).

  17. Volkov, I was short-changing the NDP. The graphic is fixed now.

  18. Sure, Shadow. The same was true in BC, but then the HST was applied using the same rules as the GST (thus netting the provincial government about $900 million/year extra - this tax increase is the reason I opposed the tax).

    The two taxes would obviously have to be harmonised in order to make it a HST.

  19. All polls show them on the cusp of a majority, either slightly below it or slightly above it. I think its safe to say that's the situation at this time. I might go further and say that they can more than likely convince a couple of MP's to cross the floor in the event of a 4 year mandate and therefore all polls show them gaining a majority at this time.


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