Thursday, March 31, 2011

Liberals see an uptick in vote, Bloc gains a seat

Nanos Research's daily tracking has already come up with its first little shift, putting the Liberals within seven points of the Conservatives. And when we add the riding polls recently released by Segma Recherche, the result is a better situation for both Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe.
Nationally, the Conservatives are unchanged at 38.6%, where they have been for a few days. However, they are down one seat and are now projected to win 150. The Liberals, meanwhile, are up again and now stand at 27.3%, up 0.4 points from yesterday. They are still projected to win 73 seats.

The New Democrats are down 0.3 points to 16.6%, but are unchanged at 33 seats. The Bloc Québécois is also stable at 9.6%, but has gained one seat and is now projected to win 52. The Greens are down 0.1 points to 6.6%.

I will be reserving most of my longer-view reflections on changes in the projection to my articles in Le Devoir and The Globe and Mail each weekend, which will be comparing week-to-week changes. But during the campaign, I will also take the time to look at campaign-wide trends once we are a few more weeks into the race.
Regionally, the Conservatives have moved very little. They are up a smidgen in British Columbia and Quebec, but also made a decent 0.3 point gain in Ontario. They now stand at 42.2% in that province.

The Liberals made small gains in Quebec and British Columbia, but also jumped 0.7 points in Atlantic Canada at the expense of the NDP. They are now only 1.2 points behind the Tories in the region.

The New Democrats dipped in Quebec and Ontario by 0.3 points, which is very problematic for them. They can't afford to drop that much when they are below 17% in those provinces.

The one seat change took place in Quebec. The Conservatives are now projected to lose Beauport - Limoilou, represented by Sylvie Boucher. Michel Létourneau, the Bloc candidate in this Quebec City riding, is now projected to be ahead.

A full report on the Nanos and Segma polls will be up later today.

Note that yesterday's Nanos poll is highlighted in blue in the charts at the bottom of this page, and has been given a weight of zero in the projection. That is because today's tracking poll incorporates two of the three days that yesterday's poll included. Once the Nanos tracking poll is reporting on three completely different days than their first poll, the older poll will be given its appropriate weight and returned to the model.


  1. Nanos had the 400 calls on the March 30 add 4.0% to the Liberals and take away 3.7% from the NDP.

    The CPC inched up .7 %.

    Wednesday must have been a near historic bad day for the NDP or they had a great day on Sunday the 28th that got dropped off.

    I have a theory that the NDP/Liberals poll better in the weekdays and the CPC will poll better on Saturdays and especially Sundays.

    The CPC voters will not have time for a poll during the week as they will be working and looking after their kids etc. The NDP/Liberal voters are more likely to have more time on their hands as they have a tendency to enjoy life more and rely on someone else to look after their needs.

    These are broad generalizations but it will be interesting to see if Nanos daily polls support my theory.

  2. You mean Conservative supporters don't spend their weekends out with their kids? That's too bad.

  3. they take the 5 minutes to answer the poll when playing an educational board game with the kids.

    The kids need some down time from all the swimming dancing and hockey. They might be playing a bit of road hockey but usually are close to home.

    They will take the 5 minutes off on Saturday from cleaning doing yard work.


  4. The NDP --> Liberal shift in today's Nanaos tracking poll is huge!

    I can't imagine it's going to hold, but still that has to worry the NDP.

  5. I thought todays Nanos, as reported on the Globe, had the Libs in the 30's ??

  6. BCVoR,

    And then June Cleaver serves dinner, right?


    Yes, but that is just one poll.

  7. In 2008 the CPC jumped 5% in the Nanos polls taken over the Thanksgiving weekend when the campaign was over and June Cleaver was actually serving dinner :)

  8. peter... the Liberals jumped to 32 % from 28 on a 3 day average. If they were consistent at 28 for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday that means the Wednesdays Nanos would have them at 40%!!

    The same assumptions and maths for the NDP 19.6 to 15.9 means the NDP polled at 8.5% on Wednesday

    No wonder Mr. Layton's status at the Leadership debates is in question.

  9. Only going by what's published BC

    Your spin is ignored !!

  10. This is not a spin! It is the best guess at what the numbers available show.

    (28 + 28 + x)/3 = 32

    where x = Liberal support in the poll of march 30

    x = 40

    If the CPC were at 50% under the same mathematics and assumptions I would be celebrating and hoping that this was a sign of things to come.

    Can't deal with success?

    Or are you a NDP supporter who just talks a Liberal game?

  11. @BCVoR

    Having done calling for market research, anecdotally your theory is unsupported. Election specific calling may be different (surveys are shorter, respondent interest is often higher), but the trend for most general calling was that right-leaning respondents were more likely to get angry about being called on the weekend (especially on a Sunday).

  12. What do you think of Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier? I hear Andre Arthur is in trouble there and the Bloc could take that seat as well. Also, are the Conservatives running a candidate there?

  13. Yes, I have the Bloc as the projected winner in the riding. As far as I know, the Conservatives haven't nominated a candidate for the riding.

    If they do, Arthur is definitely toast.


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