Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Positive signs for the Liberals in new projection

Baby steps, but the Liberals have their first set of good news this morning. The party has made small but encouraging gains in most parts of the country.

The newest Nanos/CTV/Globe poll, while not spectacular for the Liberals, does put them in a better position than some of the other polls we have seen lately. This new poll has been added to the projection, as have the older regional results from the Harris-Decima poll released earlier this week. In anticipation of my full poll summary later today, I invite you to look at the findings of the polls at the links provided above.
The Conservatives remain firmly in control. They are unchanged from yesterday's projection of 38.6% support and 151 seats. The Liberals have picked up one seat from the New Democrats in the projection, as well as 0.2 points. They now stand at 26.9% and 73 seats.

The NDP, with a gain of 0.2 points, are almost at the 17% mark. They now stand at 16.9% in what has been a few days of gains, but are down one seat to 33.

The Bloc Québécois is down 0.2 points nationally to 9.6% and steady at 51 seats, while the Greens are down 0.3 points to 6.7%.
When we look at the projection breakdown regionally, we can see that today's projection is a much better one for the Liberals. They are up 0.4 points in British Columbia and Alberta, and have closed the gap by 1.3 points in Atlantic Canada. The gain in Quebec is also very important.

For the Conservatives, they did not have much change. They were down a little out west but did make a gain in Ontario. At 41.9%, they are certainly in a strong position in the most important of electoral battlegrounds.

For the New Democrats, they had the tiniest of growth but growth nevertheless in five of the six regions. Most promising is the gain in Ontario, where they stand at 16.7%. They also continue to grow relentlessly in Quebec, and are now at 14.8%.

The only seat to change hands in the projection is that of Vancouver - Kingsway. The Vancouver riding is an NDP seat represented by Don Davies. The seat is one of those that has gone back and forth in the projection, and now Liberal candidate Wendy Yuan is projected to have the lead once again.

On a personal note, my apologies for the lateness of today's update. When I went to bed last night there were no new polls on the horizon, so it did not seem necessary to wake up as early as I have been doing so far in the campaign. But now that we can be sure of a daily Nanos poll (as they are starting their daily tracking), I'll be up at the crack of dawn to try to get these projection updates up before 8am.


  1. 'On a personal note, my apologies for the lateness of today's update."

    I'm sure I speak for everyone here when I say we appreciate your efforts!

  2. I agree; your efforts are tremendous and bring us much needed information. Keep up the great work for the benefit of all Canadian voters!

  3. Thanks for indicating the incumbent party in the riding projections charts.

    It adds a lot of value.

    This is the best site covering the election and Alice Funke is the best TV analyst.

    I guess since none of the traditional media ever retire (Oliver, Mansbridge, Robertson, Taber, Weston, and the list goes on and on) or get fired for partisanship or poor performance "new" people like you and Ms Funke have to muscle your way in by being obviously more competent and providing better value.

  4. Thanks BCVoR and others.

    I may not be on television like Alice (and congrats to her for it!) but I do appear now and then on radio. I'm scheduled to be on the John Gormley show in Saskatchewan on Monday morning, barring any re-scheduling (which happens a lot, I've found).

  5. Quick questiom, what is your MOE for your seats projections and or the percentage of party support

  6. There isn't an MOE, as my projections aren't polls. It would be incorrect to claim a margin of error, as those are only applied to statistically valid polls.

    What I can report is how accurate my projections were in the last two elections I covered.

    In the 2008 Quebec provincial election, my vote projection was off by an average of 1.1% for each of the five parties. For seats, I was off by an average of two per party. You can see the full results here (copy and paste to your address bar in your browser):

    For the 2010 New Brunswick election, I was hamstrung by the lack of polling. However, for the four parties I was off by an average of 2.8%. For the seats, I was off by an average of seven.

    However, when the correct popular vote results were plugged into the projection model, I was off by an average of less than two seats.

    You can see the comparison of election results to projections for the 2010 NB election here:

    I also suggest you look at some of the tests I've run on the model:

    I hope that helps.

  7. With all due respect having the Liberals on a projected 73 seats with the Tories at 151 is hardly a positive sign at any point in this campaign. Unless you are a Tory which I am. The Liberals want a coalition and that is why Iggy pulled the plug.

  8. Eric,

    Could you please provide a link to the text (not image) versions of the individual riding predictions tables?


  9. I'm afraid there are no text versions of the tables.

  10. Anonymous.

    Why are you so insistent that Mr. Ignatieff and the Liberals want to form a coalition? The man has said that he will not form one, so why continue to harp on it? Maybe if your party started talking about policies instead of fearmongering over things that aren't going to happen, people would trust you enough to have a majority in Parliament. Bloody partisanship, it's annoying from your lot at the best of times, now you just look petty (again)

  11. Anon the most honest Liberal in existence - Stephane Dion - said there would be no coalition during the last campaign.

    There was.

    Sorry but the idea we would trust Ignatieff at this point, after what Dion did last time, is just ridiculous.

  12. I think the situation is different, because Dion wasn't planning a coalition but it was forced upon him by the Conservative plan to do away with the party subsidy (as well as what the opposition perceived to be inaction related to the recession). If they had been planning a coalition, they wouldn't have passed the throne speech.

    In any case, Ignatieff and Dion are two different people. You can disbelieve Ignatieff if you want, but basing it on what Dion did doesn't really make sense.

  13. The coalition wasn't forced on Dion. Party subsidy and stimulus debate came long after that was put into motion in the backrooms.

    Its kind of beside the point. Ignatieff doesn't need a coalition to become Prime Minister.

    If Harper fails to win a majority he'll be voted down on the throne speech.

    Ignatieff will become PM of a minority and be supported by the NDP/BQ on the throne speech and budget.

    It won't be a "coalition" because there'll be no other parties in cabinet and no formal agreement.

    That stuff will all be negotiated in the backrooms between the three parties.

    The above scenario is exactly what the Liberals no coalition document says they'll do.

  14. Eric, you just showed your true Liberal colours in that rant. All I said was having a 78 seat deficit is hardly a good sign for Liberals and you go purple. I read your blog every day and totally respect the work you do for us. With regard to Iggy and the coalition why would anyone so far behind in the polls call an election without the C word in mind. Remember Chretin when he said theyd scrap the GST. I rest my case and look forward to following your analysis throughout this cake-walk of an election.

  15. Coalition or working arrangement I doubt the Liberals will try it unless things tighten up a lot more. If they tried to do it with a 40+ seat deficit, it would backfire on them big time and they would pay dearly in the polls in the next election. The Liberals are not stupid so I can only see a coalition or working arrangement if things are relatively close. Also I would describe Eric as partisan, if anything I find this blog one of the fairest and least partisan. If you want a partisan blog you can go to liblogs and blogging Tories which have plenty of highly partisan ones and give predictions more of what they want to happen than what is likely to happen.

  16. I get what Anon is saying:

    Anyone who says "trust the politician!" hasn't been paying attention to politicians in Canada!

    Chretien and the GST, Campbell and the HST, Harper and income trusts, Dion and the coalition.

    A better rule of thumb is:

    Every politician will do whatever it takes to gain the maximum benefit/maximum power.

    By that logic a coalition is a no brainer. You'd be a fool to doubt it.


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