Monday, March 28, 2011

Conservatives trail in Quebec City region

On Saturday, Le Soleil reported on a new Segma poll, conducted from March 21 to March 24 (the day before the budget to the day before the government fell). Unfortunately the details on riding results were scant, but what the poll does show is that the Conservatives have given up the lead in the Quebec City region to the Bloc Québécois.
Though showing little change from Segma's last poll conducted in January, this poll puts the Bloc at 37% in the region, up four points from their 2008 level of support (according to the accompanying article). The Conservatives, meanwhile, have dropped six points and now trail with 30%.

The Liberals and New Democrats follow with 14% and 9% support, respectively. They aren't in the race.

Revealingly, Segma asked respondents which leader they felt could best move forward issues pertaining to Quebec City. It was Gilles Duceppe who came out on top with 39%, followed by Stephen Harper with 24%. Jack Layton was at 10%, while Michael Ignatieff was only at 8%.

But it is remarkable that residents of Quebec City seem to be turning away from Harper after five years. Though 45% of respondents said that the Conservatives had delivered for the region, it appears that not one in four believe that Harper is willing to continue favouring the city in the future. It does not bode well for the fortunes of the Conservative MPs in the region, and in Quebec as a whole.

And this poll reflects that, as it only puts Josée Verner in Louis-Saint-Laurent ahead of the Bloc, with 38% to 29%. Both Sylvie Boucher in Beauport - Limoilou and Daniel Petit in Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charles trail their Bloc opponents in this poll, though caution is needed. While the MOE is 6.7% in Louis-Saint-Laurent, it is almost 10% in the other two ridings.

Nevertheless, this is a very troubling poll for the Conservatives. Recent results from CROP have also shown that the Tories are trailing in their one area of strength in Quebec. Though Tory growth in other parts of the country could compensate for the loss of a few seats in and around Quebec City, it really isn't anything the Conservatives can afford at this point.

If you missed them earlier, you can scroll down to read today's poll summary and projection update details, or read them here and here.


  1. First the Ekos poll showing weakness in Alberta, then this?

    Hints that things are about to get interesting.

    When do the daily tracking polls start?

  2. I'm betting they have already started!

    Pollsters tend not to poll during weekends, and most polls require at least two days in the field, so the daily tracking polls could start up as early as Wednesday.

  3. The recent CROP poll had the Bloc at 36% to the CPC at 33% in the QC region. Do you by any chance have a projection on this poll that has the LPC at an unbelievable 11% Quebec support? Tx.

  4. Throwing this together quickly, I'd have the Bloc at 53, the Conservatives at 14, the NDP at five, and the Liberals at three in Quebec. I really don't think this is a likely scenario, though, and the model's accuracy gets worse as parties flail about like this.

  5. Quebecers upset that they cant hold the Tories to ransom. I recall the Tories were no where in the 2006 election in Quebec and look what happened.

  6. New Harris Decima poll out:
    CPC- 38% (+4%)
    LPC- 24% (-4%)
    NDP- 19% (+2%)
    BQ- 10% (0%)
    GPC- 8% (-1%)

  7. Duceppe doesn't rule out coalition with Iggy's Liberals:

    Thanks Gilles

  8. This is Gilles Duceppe's dream election. If the Bloc can win Quebec City, it will become the dominant party in every single area of francophone Quebec.

    Imagine 2013, when the PQ wins the election and decides to hold a referendum, with their main opponent being a Harper government with almost no Quebec MPs? Who would defend the federalist cause in Quebec then? Maxime Bernier, who resigned in disgrace? The ever-popular Stephane Dion? Or how about Quebec's two new federalist stars, Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair-- both of whom are likely to lose their seats?

    I wish Samuel de Champlain wasn't so funny-looking, because I'll probably be seeing him on my money soon.

  9. Ouch, that HD poll isn't what the Liberals wanted to see.

  10. Also fyi, Abacus came out with a new poll, one more in line with Ekos and the HD before than the others:

    Btw Eric, did Segma give any numbers for Louis-Hebert?

  11. I'm hoping the full HD details will be put up soon, before tomorrow morning.

    I imagine Segma did, but Le Soleil did not report them. Segma doesn't have a regularly updated website.

  12. So, whatever happened to the Liberal "two election strategy" of having Ignatieff pretend to be Jack Layton and swing to the left to knock out the NDP in this election and then swing to the right and knock out the Tories four years from now? So far, all I see is a slew of polls showing the NDP higher than ever at 19 or 20%, while Liberals are shedding votes like crazy to the Conservatives.


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