Wednesday, March 9, 2011

PQ still dominates in latest CROP poll

CROP has never been very quick to release their polling data, but they have gotten better at it since they used to never release their data. This week, they finally released the full details of their poll conducted between February 16 and 21. Using what sparse information was available in media reports, I wrote about the federal results last week. You can take a look at the full CROP details here to see the regional breakdown for the federal parties, as well as the numbers for the provincial poll.

The provincial results show that the Parti Québécois continues to have things well in hand, while the Liberals are flirting with catastrophe.

Compared to CROP's last provincial poll taken before Christmas, the PQ has dropped four points to 37%. The Liberals, meanwhile, are down one point to 24%.

The Action Démocratique du Québec is down three points to 13%, while Québec Solidaire is steady at 12%.

The Greens are up four points to 10%.

Credit goes to CROP, who state that because they use an online panel the usual sampling margin of error does not apply.

The PQ is doing well among francophones, leading with 43%. The Liberals (16%), ADQ and QS (14% each) are tied for second.

The Liberals dominate with 64% among non-francophones, while the Greens are doing very well at 18%. Of course, that will get them nowhere.

In and around Montreal, the PQ leads with 35%, followed by the Liberals at 29% and the Greens at 13%. Québec Solidaire must be doing very well in the francophone parts of Montreal, as they are at 10% in the region but only at 2% among non-francophones (virtually all of whom live on the island).

In Quebec City, the ADQ (31%) and PQ (26%) are fighting it out, with the Liberals at 19%. And elsewhere in the province, the PQ leads with 42%, followed by the Liberals at 19% and the ADQ and QS at 14%.

With the results of this poll only, ThreeHundredEight projects that the Parti Québécois would win 84 seats if an election were held during CROP's polling period. That is a gain of one over CROP's last poll in December.

The Liberals win only 25 seats, while the ADQ wins 13 (down two). Québec Solidaire wins three seats, all on the island of Montreal.

CROP also asked who would make the best Premier. "Aucun" (none of them) topped out at 30%, and was followed by Pauline Marois of the Parti Québécois at 20%. If we remove the "none of the above" and "don't know" responses, we get Marois at 38%, Jean Charest at 25%, Amir Khadir (QS) at 21%, and Gérard Deltell (ADQ) at 13%.

CROP also has Guy Rainville at 1%, though Rainville was replaced by Claude Sabourin as leader of the Quebec Green Party in the autumn of 2010.

Interestingly, it appears that the numbers for Marois, Charest, and Deltell are virtually the same as their parties' voting intention results. The only difference is Khadir. Québec Solidaire has some room for growth, which is quite astounding considering the party is already at three times the level of support the party had in the 2008 election.

CROP also asked Quebecers about whether they would support sovereignty (and not sovereignty-association, as they used to). Though sovereignty is often said to be dead in Quebec, CROP puts support at independence at 43%, which is where it has generally been for the last 30 years. It might not be kicking, but it certainly isn't dead.

Though Quebec does not need to have another election before 2013, I've heard many pundits say that the next vote will take place in 2012. That doesn't leave a lot of time for Charest to turn things around. If there is a silver lining for the Liberals, it is that Marois is not very popular and considering how badly things have been for the Liberals the PQ should be nearer to 50%, or at least the 43% supporting sovereignty. Their support is being eaten away by Québec Solidaire, another sovereigntist party, but the Liberals' silver lining is dulled by the fact that QS is unlikely to be a spoiler for the PQ in many ridings outside of Montreal, and in those ridings the Liberals do not stand much of a chance anyway.

7 comments:

  1. It's slightly off-topic but these CROP numbers, on the federal scene, put BQ support among non-francos at 0% (or rather at --%, which presumably means 'negligible'). Can that be real? Okay, the sample size is small, but the BQ has spoken about inroads among allos, if not anglos. Surely if nothing else BQ allo candidates vote for themselves?

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  2. Did you see the new Leger poll out today just in Quebec City that has the Tory vote in a state of total collapse to just 20% (compared to 44% for the BQ). This would be the first poll after the Tories decided not to fund the arena (after letting Nordiques fans twist in the wind for six months!) and it points to a total Tory wipeout in Quebec City and if they get wiped out in QC then you are looking at a Quebec Tory caucus after the election consisting of Maxime Bernier and maybe Lawrence cannon and maybe Christian Paradis and maybe Jean-Pierre Blackburn - and that's about it! (oh and the BQ would easily knock off Andre Arthur too - he got a ton of bad publicity this week with the news that he has just about the worst attendance record in Parliament and almost never speaks - I'm sure that when people elected that loud-mouth former talk radio host they were expecting a bit more "bang for their buck"!!)

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  3. Thanks for pointing it out.

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  4. Where could QS win a third seat in Montreal when they are polling at 10%?

    QS's best result in Montreal in 2008 after Khadir and David was in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, where they came in third with 15%, 21 points behind the winner. Their next best result after that was Outremont, where they were 43% behind the winner.

    I understand that QS is at three times the level of support that they were in 2008. But it's a lot easier in any individual riding to go from 2% to 6% than to go from 15% to 45%.

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  5. I have them taking Outremont which, considering the federal situation in the area, isn't outlandish.

    But for Quebec I use a much simpler projection model than I do for federal politics.

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  6. 55% of Outremont voters are non-francophones. It's one thing for them to vote for an anglophone running federally for the NDP; it's quite another to imagine them voting for the pro-independence QS.

    I imagine that QS won't even bother putting more money into Outremont and if they do try for a third seat it would be Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques.

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  7. Goaltender Interference30 March, 2011 16:16

    Actually, only 20% of the provincial riding of Outremont is non-francophone (see page 11 of this link: http://dgeq.qc.ca/documents/pdf/dossier-socio-economique/2006/outremont.pdf ) which is almost exactly the same liguitsic profile as Mercier, where QS won a seat.

    The provincial riding does not include the McGill ghetto or anything adjacent to the Town of Mount Royal, which are both overwhelmingly non-francophone areas included in the federal riding.

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