Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Liberals down, NDP up in new projection

Yesterday, Jack Layton surprised us all by coming out into the foyer of the House of Commons and announcing that his party could not support the Conservative budget. This came after both Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe said they would not support the budget either. While Layton made some reference to not being able to support the budget "in its current form", Finance Minister Jim Flaherty emerged to say that no amendment would be considered.

This morning, there is word that the Liberals will use their opposition day to put forward a motion of non-confidence in the government related to accountability issues. The downfall of the government is now unavoidable.

For all intents and purposes, the election campaign begins today. And this means a lot of work at What can you expect?

I've decided upon a daily routine which I hope to keep to throughout the campaign.

I will be getting up bright and early (today was an exception!) and work on inputting the newest polls into the projection model. As soon as it is ready, I will be posting the daily projection. I'm hoping I can do this before 8:00 AM each day.

Then, after catching up a little on the news, I will post a summary of the previous day's polls. These will be all national and provincial polls released during the previous day, and will be accompanied by an analysis of new trends, especially fascinating results from the individual polls, and a one-poll-only seat projection for what I consider to be the most interesting poll of the lot. Hopefully, this poll summary will be out before noon.

Finally, in the afternoon I will post about different things. This could be a riding poll or interesting regional poll, a new individual poll that is out during the day that deserves an immediate look, or some piece of analysis that I've been working on.

Any and all suggestions for things to cover during the campaign are welcome! But let's get to today's new projection.

At the national level, the Conservatives have dropped 0.5 points to 37.8% but are still projected to win 149 seats. The Liberals are up 0.3 points to 27.7%, but have lost two seats and now stand at 73. The New Democrats are up 0.5 points to 16.3%, and are now projected to win 34 seats, a gain of two since March 21st.

The Bloc Québécois is up 0.1 points to 9.9% nationally, while the Greens are down 0.3 points to 7.3%.

Rather than go through the regional changes one by one, each day I will be presenting the following chart:

Note that the Conservatives have dropped everywhere west of Quebec, with the losses in British Columbia and Alberta being especially large. The Liberals, meanwhile, are relatively stable except for some encouraging gains in Alberta and Ontario.

The NDP is up strongly in the west as well as in Atlantic Canada, while the Greens have gained in the one province that matters: British Columbia.

At the riding level, the New Democrats have re-gained Edmonton - Strathcona from the Conservatives. The Liberals have lost Ajax - Pickering and Brampton - Springdale in the GTA to the Tories, while the New Democrats have taken Sault Ste. Marie back from the Conservatives in northern Ontario.

British Columbia is a province to watch for the New Democrats. With their gain and the Tory loss, they are now moving closer in Burnaby - Douglas, Surrey North, and Vancouver Kingsway.

Below are the individual riding projections. I've put them all in one big image, which should be more convenient. As always, they are also presented in the right-hand column.

Let's get this campaign rolling!


  1. I just want to tell you thank you ahead of time for your work on the campaign that you've outlined in this post. I check your blog here everyday and I really appreciate all the hard work you put into keeping it current and interesting.


  2. Thanks Eric, good work as usual.
    You're going to be a busy guy the next several weeks. Don't wear yourself too thin.
    Now to the fun part.
    I see the Libs dropped two but who cares. If they keep improving .3 here and there, and the CPC keeps dropping .5 here and there, that's going to mean seats for the Liberals.
    It's incrementalism -- as the Cons like to say -- and it works, only this time maybe for the other guys.
    I predict, heaven help me, the CPC will jump into a majority territory in polls early and then fall off over the course of the campaign, unless there's something dramatic jump out of the bush for either side.

  3. Eric, will you still be doing projections from each individual poll that comes out - or are you expecting there to be such a flood of polls over the next six weeks that you'll instead just do a daily update of the projection using each days new polls as a composite to be added to the mix?

  4. As mentioned in the post, I'll only be doing one-poll-projections for select polls that I think are interesting.

    No point in doing that time-consuming work for every three or four or five polls that should be coming out every day, as most of them won't be very different.

  5. Well as I stated earlier this week I am shocked that the coalition actually stood their ground and forced an election.

    In 2008 the CPC got a 4 % jump across the board when Harper reacted to Dion's threat and called an election.

    This time my guess is that the polls next week will have the CPC in the 40-45 range.

    Liberals might break the 20% barrier in the AR poll.

    any other people willing to be embarrassed with their predictions?

  6. I am not Canadian, but I cant really decide who Id vote for. A few months ago, it wouldve been NDP easily, but now I am a free market proponent. Altho I still support social justice (I think a free market will bring that about)

    I probably wouldnt vote anyway, but I still do wonder...

  7. Hey BC Voice: As usual you add considerable humor to your posts.
    Actually, the coalition broke down yesterday when CPC partners, Jack and company, realized the deal was dead.
    Harper called the 2008 election out of the blue, probably because he liked the polls, and not because of anything any other leader did.
    And I would suggest he did more or less the same here by turning his back on the deal he made with his NDP coalition partners.
    As for predictions, see my post above. As for how far the CPC falls, who knows. But likely they'll lose seats come election day -- as long as the Liberals stay optimistic, positive and disciplined they should do well.
    Let's face it. The CPC is wearing out its welcome quickly in this country, and whether its this spring or two years from now, they're inevitably heading for the opposition seats.

  8. Suggestion

    In the riding projections would you be able to highlight riding name in the party colour of the losing incumbent.

    For example in Brampton- Springdale highlight the name Brampton - Springdale in Liberal red as you have predicted incumbent Ruby Dhalla losing her seat.

  9. BC V of reason,

    Nice re-writing of history. Harper responded to the Dion threat by calling an election in 2008. The Harper Conservatives called everything they could a confidence vote that year and Harper then went to the GG to disolve the government when Dion wouldn't bite.

    After the election, Harper then proprogued parliament to AVOID a confidence motion that he was going to lose.

  10. A suggestion: it would be nice to highlight the seat changes in your projections. It's a pain trying to remember and look around which one... all 308 of them.

  11. I do. This is from this post:

    "At the riding level, the New Democrats have re-gained Edmonton - Strathcona from the Conservatives. The Liberals have lost Ajax - Pickering and Brampton - Springdale in the GTA to the Tories, while the New Democrats have taken Sault Ste. Marie back from the Conservatives in northern Ontario."

  12. I meant as compared to the dissolution of Parliament, not between projections. A simple highlight in your seats list projections would do if it's not too much work for you. For example, I would put let's say a red dot or border bolding on Ahuntsic, Brossard - La Patrie, etc. It would be easier than going all over the Wiki trying to remember the distribution at dissolution. ;) Overall, keep up the good work and I'll be watching closely!

  13. Anonymous

    I choose to think that you have selected memory.

    Mr. Dion clearly threatened to bring the Government down on the incredible bad March Budget

    Immediately after caving in Mr. Dion proceeded to threaten election non-stop until Harper told him to watch what he asked for:

    Looking over the August September 2008 headlines it brought back memories of the courts cases on the illegal election and how the media thought Harper was going to pay if he called an election.

    No one want to predict what the polls will say next week?

    There was an interview on BNN with IR VP John Wright and he was "shocked" the Liberals would go along with forcing an election trailing the "CPC by 10-20%" in all areas of Canada.

    He also said that currently polling filtering out people who will not likely vote the CPC were over 40 and trending towards 42-44 a strong Majority


    It would be great to get Bricker, Nanos, Wright and Gregg on the same discussion panel

  14. Eric I think that anonymous and I are referring to your graphic depicting your "Riding Predictions"

  15. Anonymous,

    Understood, will see what I can do.

  16. Eric we seem to be getting a number of Anonymous posters again. It gets confusing. Could you ask them to please use a name as you have previously.


    PS: Sounds like you have great coverage planned for the upcoming election. Looking forward to it.

    BCVOR no projections yet. It is anyone's guess as to what will happen IMO.

  17. Remember, at this point in the 1993 campaign, Kim Campbell was still ahead.

    At this point in 2006 campaign, Paul Martin was still ahead.

    No prediction, just sayin....

  18. Eric. Read your site each and every day and look forward to your continuing insight into what's going on during the upcoming election.

  19. Reading the national Press there is some disquiet about.

    Even the National Post seems a little negative on the CPC.

    Could the "Contempt" stuff be starting to resonate ??


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