Note that you will always be able to click on the links to the right to see the riding-level projections. You can also see them at the bottom of this post.
ThreeHundredEight now projects if an election were held today that, with 38.1% of the vote, the Conservatives would win 152 seats, a gain of eight seats over the last projection of February 18, and a gain of nine seats over their current standing in the House of Commons.
With 27.7% of the vote, the Liberals are projected to win 73 seats, a drop of 19 from the last projection and a drop of four from their current crop of MPs in Ottawa.
With 9.9% of the national vote, the Bloc Québécois is projected to win 52 seats in Quebec, unchanged from February 18 but a gain of five compared to their current caucus.
With 15.5% of the vote, the New Democrats are projected to win 31 seats, a gain of 11 over the last projection but a loss of five overall.
With 7.4% of the vote, the Greens are not projected to win any seats, and no independents are projected to win.
It is very important to note that a lot of these gains and losses are due to the new projection model. The old projection model would have projected 148 Conservative, 86 Liberal, 52 Bloc, and 22 New Democratic seats. In other words, four of the Conservative gains are due to the model, as are nine of the NDP gains. Thirteen of the Liberal seat losses are due to the model change. The old model would have projected gains of four Conservative and two NDP seats, and a loss of six seats for the Liberals.
Obviously, the old model was harsh on the NDP to the benefit of the Liberals. It was not able to simulate accurately the regional strength of the NDP within each province. However, that is not to say that the old projection model was wrong. While I am more confident in the new model, in the end we will have to wait and see when the votes are counted whether the old or new model was more accurate.
Nationally, the Conservatives are up 1.1 points and the NDP 0.4 points. The Liberals are down 0.4 points, the Bloc is down 0.1 points, and the Greens are down 1.1 points.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives have gained 1.9 points and lead with 40.3%. They are projected to win 22 seats, unchanged from February 18th. The Liberals are down 2.3 points to 23.7%, and three seats to seven. The NDP is up two points to 23.2% and three seats to seven. The Greens are down 1.7 points to 10.4%.
In Alberta, the Conservatives are up 0.6 points to 61.4% and are now projected to win all 28 seats. The Liberals are up one point to 19.9%, and lose the seat they were projected to win. They are still very close in Edmonton Centre, however. The NDP is down 1.3 points to 9.4%, while the Greens are down 0.3 points to 7.5%.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives have gained 4.9 points and lead with 51.5%. They are projected to win 22 seats, up one. The Liberals are down 2.8 points to 21.2%, followed by the NDP at 21.1% (+0.9). The NDP is projected to win four seats (+2) and the Liberals two (-3). The Greens are down 1.9 points to 5.6%.
In Ontario, the Conservatives are up 0.8 points to 41.2%, and are projected to win 56 seats, a gain of two. The Liberals are down 0.6 points to 34.6% and are projected to win 35 seats, down seven. The NDP is up 1.1 points to 15.3%, and is projected to win 15 seats, a gain of five. The Green Party is down 1.2 points to 7.8%.
The Bloc Québécois is up 0.4 points to 40.1%, and is still projected to win 52 seats. The Liberals are up 0.9 points to 21.3%, and are projected to win 13 seats, down one. The Conservatives are up 0.2 points to 19.2% and are projected to win nine seats, up one. The NDP is down one point to 12.7%, and is still projected to win one seat. The Greens are down 0.6 points to 5.7%.
In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are up 2.8 points to 39%, followed by the Liberals at 36.3% (+0.5). The Conservatives are projected to win 13 seats, a gain of two. The Liberals are projected to win 15 seats, a loss of three. The NDP is down 1.5 points to 18%, but is up one seat to four in the region. The Greens are down 0.3 points to 6%.
In the North, the Conservatives are projected to win Nunavut and Western Arctic, while the Liberals are projected to win Yukon.
At the next projection update, I will identify the individual seats that will have shifted from one party to another.
Here are the full riding projections (click to expand):
|Quebec, Atlantic, North|