Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Split House ensues

Two new polls in the model, one from Nanos Research and the other from the Innovative Research Group, do very little to shift the projection. In fact, at the national level, there have been virtually no changes at all.
The Conservatives continue to lead with 38.6% and are projected to win 154 seats, unchanged from yesterday. The Liberals remain at 27.6% and 71 seats, while the New Democrats are also unchanged at 16.8% and 32 seats.

The Bloc Québécois is still at 9.4% nationally and 51 seats, while the Greens are down 0.1 points to 6.3%.
Regionally, things are pretty static. The biggest set of changes has come in British Columbia, where the Conservatives have dropped 0.4 points to 40.3%, followed by the Liberals at 24.2% and the NDP at 23.4%.

In Ontario, the gap has widened by another 0.3 points as the Liberals drop 0.2 and the Conservatives gain 0.1.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have made another gain and now stand at 36.6%, within one point of the Tories.

There have been no seat changes since yesterday.

The two new polls this morning have a few little interesting tidbits in them, however, so check back soon for the daily poll summary.


  1. I wonder when people are going to start paying attention to the NDP numbers in Quebec. Its now 19% with Nanos and that is in an UNPROMPTED question with no leaders names mentioned. This is REAL

  2. The problem is they're averaging about twenty-five points behind in every Quebec riding other than Outremont and Gatineau, DL. Even if they go up, it's hard for them to get to three seats. Hull-Aylmer is the third best, but even there they need 11 points more to come out on top.

  3. The NDP has the same sort of problem in Quebec that the Greens have in Canada. The NDP has no real regional pocket of support in the province.

    Whenever we see regional breakdowns in Quebec, we often see the NDP at 15%-20% in Montreal, Quebec City, and the 'regions'. That makes it difficult for them to pick-up any seats.

    I think the Outaouais could be one of those regions for the NDP, but I'm not sure if it fits the profile. If neither Turmel nor Boivin win in Gatineau than I think we can call the NDP experiment in that part of the province over.

  4. Loonie = $1.0435 USD !!


    10:30 AM Wed Apr 6. EDT

  5. That's nice Peter, but could you explain the link in between this and the election?

  6. Dollar looking so good because of yesterday's OECD numbers.

    Just incredible growth, MUCH higher than the US and top of the pack for Canada.

    I can see why the opposition would rather talk about process issues than the economy.

    Harper is just doing such a darn good job they're trying to change teh subject at any cost.

  7. Wait for the positve job numbers to come out at the end of the week...I guessing a spike for the Conservatives.


  8. My husband said to me this morning. "Do you really find that stuff interesting?" I said, "Well it probably is the most boring election ever."

    This during a time of war, revolution, natural and nuclear disaster, economic collapse, etc. There's so much the opposition could be talking about but isn't.

    If a couple of students being asked to leave a private function by the RCMP, is the most important thing you can think of to talk about, the default is to the government. That's what the Liberals seem to be completely ignoring. The default vote is to the government, especially in times of uncertainty and crises.

    It doesn't matter if Michael is feeling good on the campaign trail. He's not talking about anything significant. Telling us we don't need fighter jets, while we are currently engaged in a foreign war using our 50 year old fighter jets, unquestioned and undebated, rings a little hollow.

    Ironically, Liberals do seem to think it's all about Michael. I got news for them it's not.

    Look for a lot of stability in the polls with a 1.5% bump on election day, for the Conservatives (standard in Canadian polling) putting them over the top.

    This is an election about nothing other than whether or not Michael was feeling good. I and many other Canadians are not amused enough to vote against the government.

  9. The high dollar is and will kill manufacturing in this country. As for Harper's abysmal record on jobs and the economy see:

    - There are still 30 per cent more unemployed Canadians -- 1.5 million, or 30.1 per cent more than in October, 2008.

    - The unemployment rate is 1.6 percentage-points higher -- 7.8 per cent v. 6.2 per cent in Oct. 2008.

  10. People don't vote based on what the unemployment data says. If anything they vote based on their own jobs situation.

    So I doubt the jobs numbers for March coming out Friday at 7 AM will affect anyone's decision.

  11. As heartening as it would be for the NDP to finish second in dozens of Quebec ridings, the Greens already finish second in much of Alberta, and it doesn't do them any good.

    But what it is is a good fundraising base for them. The NDP can use that support as a base from which to grow. And it's also support the other federalist parties don't have.

  12. Will you be looking at the interesting ridings individually at all, Éric, or sticking to the regional numbers? I'd love to see in depth on ridings like Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe, Papineau, Kingston and the Islands, Edmonton Centre, and Saanich—Gulf Islands. (Ouch! Vancouver Kingsway, then! I know May isn't polling that close! :D)

  13. Time permitting, I would like to do that.

  14. Anonymous,
    A strong Canadian dollar will not do anything at all to manufacturing in your country. Exchange rates are just based on how much currency is being traded around. It doesnt matter what your currency is denominated in. People will buy Canadian goods if the price is right, no matter how it exchanges.

    Further, the more you export, the more you need to import. You cant just export, export, export. Mercantilism was proven wrong almost two and a half centuries ago.

  15. Are the riding projections available in text/spreadsheet format?

  16. C'est dommage.

    By entering the Québec data by hand, I've already found where the NDP vote is acting as a spoiler, letting the Conservatives in:

    * Beauport - Limoilou
    Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charles
    * Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup
    Roberval - Lac-Saint-Jean

    * = The Greens are spoilers here, too

  17. also

    * Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier

  18. I'm an Albertan transplanted to BC, so I found Ira's comment about the Greens finishing second in much of Alberta surprising. I had to go look up the numbers to see if I had overlooked a green shift back home.

    I don't think there is any comparison between what the NDP are accomplishing in Quebec in 2011 and what the Greens did in Alberta in 2008. The Greens finished second in only three constituencies in Alberta in 2008: Calgary South, MacLeod, and Wild Rose. In each case, they were over 30,000 votes behind the Conservatives and only garnered 12.6%, 10.3%, and 9.1% of the vote in those three ridings. I don't see how this can really be heartening for the Greens. It doesn't represent any substantial strength to the Green vote, just an extreme weakness in the Liberal and NDP votes. When the Conservative candidate typically wins over 70% of the votes, voters know that a vote for the Green party won't give the Green candidate any chance of winning the riding, and won't hurt the Liberals or NDP because neither of them have a chance either. currently projects the NDP to finish with over 20% in 6 Quebec ridings, and over 15% in 34 constituencies. The Greens only managed to exceed 20% in three ridings in the entire country, and over 15% in a grand total of nine ridings nationally in the last election. I think the NDP is achieving a significant transformation in Quebec voting trends, whereas the Greens experienced a mere blip in anti-Conservative voting patterns. Time will tell if I'm right.


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