Saturday, April 30, 2011

Week 5 Ceilings

01/05/11 UPDATE: The final projection update will be posted at the end of the day when all of the final polls of the campaign have been made public. 

The final week's ceilings are dramatic. So let me take this opportunity to calm everyone down - these are not actual projections of likely outcomes. These are best-case-scenario ceilings. I am not projecting any of these scenarios to actually take place.

The ceilings are established by taking the best regional results for each party from all of the polls released during the week, and running seat projections with those results. Of course, these calculations are greatly influenced by the smaller samples of regional polls. But we can still draw some useful information from these ceilings, as it is unlikely that the parties are capable of outpacing the best polls when you consider that the best polls are likely a few points higher than reality thanks to the MOE.

The Conservative ceiling is based on the party capturing about 44% of the national vote, split into the regions thusly: 45% in British Columbia, 74% in Alberta, 55% in the Prairies, 48% in Ontario, 18% in Quebec, and 48% in Atlantic Canada.

That would give the Tories 23 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 23 in the Prairies, 66 in Ontario, eight in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 167. That is a majority government, and generally where they have been in the ceilings throughout the campaign.

The New Democrats, with 73 seats, form the Official Opposition. The Liberals win only 45 seats and the Bloc is reduced to 23.

This is not an outlandish scenario, as the results in British Columbia, the Prairies, and Quebec are well within the norm. Sweeping Alberta is also quite likely. But the Conservatives would need to capture historic levels of support in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, which seems less likely to occur.

For the Liberals, their ceiling is based on taking 28% support nationally: 26% in British Columbia, 17% in Alberta, 21% in the Prairies, 34% in Ontario, 22% in Quebec, and 38% in Atlantic Canada.

That would give the party 84 seats, with six coming from British Columbia, two from the Prairies, 42 from Ontario, 15 from Quebec, and 18 from Atlantic Canada. That allows them to retain their status as the Official Opposition, but is really only a growth of seven seats from their standings when the government fell - and I remind you that this is a ceiling.

The Conservatives would win 131 seats, the New Democrats 63, and the Bloc 30. With a combined 147 seats, we'd likely see the Liberals and NDP govern.

These levels of support are not unusual for the Liberals, but compared to their usual levels of support in the last week of polling even this is an unlikely outcome.
The New Democratic ceiling assumes the party takes 37% of the vote nationally: 39% in British Columbia, 21% in Alberta, 40% in the Prairies, 34% in Ontario, 45% in Quebec, and 46% in Atlantic Canada.

This would give the party 16 seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, nine in the Prairies, 27 in Ontario, 56 in Quebec, and 15 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 126.

The Conservatives would still win 142 seats and get the first crack at forming government. The Liberals would be reduced to only 29 seats, but with the NDP could combine for a majority of 155. The Bloc would lose official party status with only 11 seats in the House of Commons.

I do not believe this to be a likely outcome, especially considering the unnaturally high levels of support the NDP had in a few polls in the Prairies, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. But if this campaign has taught us anything, it's that nothing is impossible.

I will have a projection update tomorrow afternoon. That will be my final post before the election takes place on Monday.

104 comments:

  1. "The Conservatives absolute ceiling is at 8 seats in Quebec under the best of scenarios"
    That is priceless. So much for that strong national government.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Nelson T.
    ---------
    Honestly, I don't see the Conservatives or the NDP enjoying those ceilings. The Liberals' is the more likely scenario, although it would still be unlikely.

    I think the breakdown is going to be much closer to your current seat projection.

    Just for sh*t and giggles, we should post our own seat projections on what we think is going to transpire by midnight on May 3rd (assuming the tight races out in BC take forever to tally)

    Here's mine:

    Cons - 141, Liberals - 72, NDP - 70, Bloc - 24, Greens - 1

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks a lot.

    I just "landed" on your website and I like it a lot !

    I'm a Math teacher in Montreal.

    Have a great election day

    ReplyDelete
  4. I wonder what the results would look like if the NDP, Libs and Greens (stop-light coalition) won all the close races that they have against the Cons and BQ. Would the coalition be able to govern without relying on the BQ for support?

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  5. Any thoughts on what the Toronto Star's endorsement of Layton over Ignatieff will have on Toronto seat projections??

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  6. Nanos and I believe EKOS are in the field today, so should capture some of that.

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  7. Tories 159, NDP 66, Liberals 57, BQ 25 , Indie 1.

    A Tory Majority with 38/39% of the vote and based on the Liberal and NDP vote in Ontario.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "Eric S said...
    Any thoughts on what the Toronto Star's endorsement of Layton over Ignatieff will have on Toronto seat projections??"

    This has been a nice and sunny day in Toronto, finally the spring is here. I think it will have little or no influence, and same result with the Toronto Sun's alleged report on Layton going to a sex massage parlour in 1996.

    I would say that Harper's Freudian slip in Niagara Falls talking about the wind of change may have more of an impact that the newspapers (admission of defeat - i.e no majority).

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  9. Hey Eric, I was directed to this site by a hockey analysis website of all things and I've just got a couple questions:

    A) What's your methodology for the seat projection? What kind of formula do you use?

    B) This probably relates to the first question, but why are your projections so different from other political sites, such as this one?

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  10. i do not see anything short of your ceiling for the NDP as providing anything other than a Conservative government. i do not believe you will see a Liberal and NDP government that requires the Bloc to graciously abstain from voting against their greatest competition.

    of course, these are ceilings. i suppose if the Liberals are near their ceiling in ONT while the NDP are near theirs in QBC and the west, that may provide a different road to government.

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  11. Tories 131, NDP 79, Liberals 61, BQ 36, Other 2

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  12. I predict a late night on election day. May have to wait for results from B.C. to figure out how things will sort out. Willing to bet there will be elected members crossing the floor. The drama will continue.
    My Prediction
    CPC 151
    NDP 73
    LIB 64
    BQ 19
    IND 1

    ReplyDelete
  13. Seat Projection
    CPC 140
    NDP 87
    LPC 56
    GRN 1
    BQ 24

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  14. My predictions (locked them in 27 Apr)

    CPC 164 NDP 55 Lib 49 Bloc 39 Ind 1

    The core separatists are motivated to vote.... the NDP supporters will be finding out on Tuesday or Wednesday or for sure by Friday that they were supposed to go to a polling station on Monday.

    The NDP support will hold strong enough to undercut the Liberal votes.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Daniel Tremblay30 April, 2011 18:32

    I believe your weighting system is too soft: your aging system allows a 7% penalty/day where it should be 20%. You would be a lot closer to ALL polling results of the last week.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Ontario once again seems to hold the key to this election.
    The Tory's need 10 more seats for their majority ( I am counting Andre Artur's seat and Simcoe Grey in their total). So basically they need to maintain their seat totals in the rest of Canada and flip 10 in Ontario.
    The first problem is that they need to make up for potential losses in Quebec and it looks like they could in the Atlantic region.
    The big hurdle though is that Ontario, despite the undulating polls is going to remain fairly static. It seems likely that there are less than a dozen ridings that will change hands in this election and no more than 8 of them would be CPC gains.
    I am willing to put on my soothsayers cap and go out on a branch to predict that there will be only 8 seats change in all of Ontario and 3 of those will be NDP gains, 2 from the LPC and 1 from the CPC. The other 5 will be CPC gains from the LPC.

    My prediction
    CPC 150, NDP 70, LPC 59, BQ 28, Green 1

    ReplyDelete
  17. Tom

    The CPC were a close second to the Liberals < 15% in 19 ridings in Ontario.

    If the CPC holds at 39% in Ontario and the Liberals drop from 33 to > 25 the CPC will take most of these ridings

    The NDP were within 15% in only 4 Ontario ridings... 3 won by the liberals and one CPC.


    The leftist voter in Ontario has a dilemma--- Continue voting for the Liberals ... which has turned into a pure protest vote or jump aboard the Jack train.

    The Liberals need to have the CPC majority so they have time to rebuild and not get totally wiped out. If the NDP have 20 more seats than the Liberals and the Liberals support a NDP minority government the next election will be the last the liberal party fields candidates.

    Their other option is to support Harper's Minority .... as they have for the last 2 years.... That is another awful choice.

    The best the Liberal party can hope for is to have a strong 3rd place showing and a CPC majority.

    Left the NDP Quebecois implode.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Here's mine:

    BLOC: 37
    CON: 147
    NDP: 63
    LIB: 61

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  19. GRN 1, IND 1, BQ 25, LIB 45, NDP 70, CON 166. Vote splitting in Ontario and BC will give the Cons their majority.

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  20. I'm not entirely convinced with the possible vote-splitting in Ontario.

    We Ontarians aren't the type of voters who change opinions with the direction of the wind. There's a lot of political inertia. I think things are more or less going to remain the same throughout much of the province, with perhaps three to five seats changing hands.

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  21. I just looked at Nanos daily leadership indicators and despaired of anything remotely able to help me figure this out. Iggy goes up, Jack and Harper both fall. Meh....can we just skip Sunday and get it all started already? This stuff is giving me a headache.

    Good thing is I think Canadians are ready for the question, and pretty much have been since Thursday.


    Sorting through these polls has been like doing augury - trying to figure out from various messy bits what is going to happen as against noticing trends. As a professional community trend watcher/researcher, I swing between frustration and utter fascination that with so much more information then we have ever had before, that we just have no idea what is going to happen. I'm pretty sure the Tories are going to win a minority - the info on that seems solid. And my experience over the last 35 years of watching this stuff tells me the desire for something different is sitting there about to happen. But, because we all have years of experience watching this, we know of far too many variables that could mean something. Which ones are going to apply? Which are not?

    I guess that's why we vote, eh?

    The partisan hyperbolic, sometimes hyperventilating, nature of many election internet discussions has meant wading through so much dross to get to real ideas. Thank you Eric again for your efforts to help us make sense of it all with this work. It has helped.

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  22. Well at least it's gonna be an exciting night on Monday. Lots of races to follow. Ontario will play a big role in the final decision with the split between NPD and Libs, the CPC may make it's way through.

    CPC: 157
    LIBS: 65
    NDP: 53
    BQ: 33

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  23. The Liberals should be able to hold their ground in Ontario and Atlantic Canada on May 2nd, so they should not lose many seats.

    The recent NDP surge actually puts many Conservative and Bloquiste seats at risk since the recent polls have the NDP higher in BC (22 CON vs 5 LIB), SK (13 CON vs 1 LIB), and QC (48 BQ vs 14 LIB vs 11 CON). The NDP has also taken roughly an equal number of votes from the Conservatives and Liberals in Ontario and Nova Scotia, but are unlikely to make any gains in the other 4 provinces (AB, NB, PE, NL).

    Projection:
    125 Conservatives
    80 Liberals
    74 New Democrats
    26 Bloquistes
    1 Green
    2 Independents (James Ford, Helena Guergis)

    LIB + NDP + GRN > CON + BQ + IND

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  24. If the Conservatives win a majority this is the greatest thing possible for the PQ and the separatist movement, you can take that to the bank.

    ReplyDelete
  25. My official prediction from last night (before Eric's projection for today came out, which it ends up being quite close to) for my election pool:

    Conservatives: 147
    Liberals: 65
    NDP: 56
    Block Quebecois: 38
    Green: 1
    Other: 1

    By the way, does anyone know what the situation is for watching results broadcasts online from outside of the country? I can also VPN into a Montreal IP address.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Has an opposition party ever lost that position, if they lose a couple of by-elections, when they are only there by a couple of seats.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Voice of Reason from BC

    The polls in Ontario are certainly interesting but I don't believe that they show the full story. Unlike most other provinces, Ontario has a long history of support of a 3 party system, both federally and provincially. Nothing is black or white here. Voters are willing to vote according to what is happening in their particular riding rather than for their choice for governing party.
    They talk about 'strategic voting' as if it is something that could change elections if enough 'progressives' bought in. I would argue that it has been going on already in Ontario for years and is fully entrenched here. This election will just serve to reenforce that fact. The Liberal vote has collapsed outside the City of Toronto. Thus the PC grab up to 5 seats in the 905 region but will lose one of Oshawa, Kenora or Essex to the NDP. Two Toronto seats, Beaches and Parkdale flip NDP.

    Monday is going to be exciting! :)

    PS Go Canucks!!!

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  28. Long time visitor, first time commenter30 April, 2011 21:07

    Just wanted to say thanks for running a fascinating and informative blog with so much dedication and skill.

    I look forward to following it again in five years at the latest, and two months at the earliest!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Something seems off in the way the ceilings are calculated.

    In the 144 projection that you're showing, the Conservatives win 9 seats in Quebec. However the ceiling, which is supposed to show the best that each party could do in a province, shows the Conservatives at 8 seats in Quebec.

    ReplyDelete
  30. CPC-130
    NDP-85
    LPC-70
    BQ-20
    GPC-1
    IND-2

    ------

    It's wishful thinking on the May seat, but Artur and Geurgis are locks.

    Eric, I am looking forward to your projection tomorrow. This being your first federal election as a projector, your repuation hinges on how you manage the large swath of seats you're still attributing to the BQ.

    Even Milton Chan over at EPP has had them below 40 for the whole campaign. And Milton is frustratingly conservative (i.e. careful) with his projections.

    Depending how you handle those seats tomorrow, I suspect that you, or your methodology,(because science is always objective right?)may be a little less busy in the future.

    Then again...

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  31. For those CPC opposition challenged hear this !!!

    NO CPC MAJORITY !!

    Get used to the REAL world !!

    Even Harper admits that as does the CPC hierarchy !!

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  32. Will be interesting to see how an increase in voting effects things. If 34% at advanced polls means 34% on election day, that means the 2008 results are fuzzy. If 34% more people vote, are these newly mobilized voters most likely to be CPC, LPC or NDP? Any thoughts? Vote splitting doesn't quite have the same effect if more people vote...

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  33. CON 135 NDP 100 LIB 53 BLOC 20

    I can't find more than 53 safe Liberal seats in the country. I wonder if they will even get that. The most recent polling has them at 18-22%, and the NDP is going to take seats from them in their heartlands. (Montreal and Toronto.) The Tories will take seats from them in the 905 belt. It won't be a good night, for Liberals.

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  34. "Daniel Tremblay said...

    I believe your weighting system is too soft: your aging system allows a 7% penalty/day where it should be 20%. You would be a lot closer to ALL polling results of the last week."

    You make it sound like the point of a poll prediction is to be as close as possible to voter intention polls, whereas it's actually to be as close as possible to the results on election night. And predicting the latter might be better done by taking more than the past week of voter intentions into account.

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  35. My personal prediction.
    Con 144
    Lib 52
    NDP 86
    Bloc 25
    Green 1
    And I still think this is generous for the Libs and the Blocs.
    RR

    ReplyDelete
  36. Mike,

    The ceilings are based on the best polls for each party in each week. The projection can be different.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hello everyone,

    I've put together a simple target list for the Conservatives. We use target lists a lot in the UK, I don't know whether you use them in Canada. I thought it might be useful:

    http://bit.ly/lPVBkj

    I'm working on a target list for the NDP at the moment which should be ready in a few hours time.

    Thanks,
    Andy JS

    ReplyDelete
  38. AverageCanuck01 May, 2011 00:11

    PETER even Ekos pollster Frank Graves admits there is a 10% chance of a Tory majority.

    Obviously someone from IR would put it higher.

    What's with all the caps and exclamation marks ??

    Who are you trying to convince here ?

    Everybody knows a CPC majority remains a possibility on election day.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Eric;

    So your telling me I won't get my morning hit of 308 projections and have to wait until the end of the day tomorrow! Going to go into withdrawel!

    Thank you for all your hard work and look forward to seeing your final numbers tomorrow. Will be very interesting to compare to the actual results.

    Non-Partisan

    ReplyDelete
  40. Thank you for your calm reasoned blogs, your incredible work, and your skill at filtering the invective that afflicts too many comments on other sites. I have read you daily as well as your notes on methodology. This is a fascinating study. I am looking forward to reading your post-election analysis.
    Janet Dudek

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  41. You know, there's always the possibility of some Bloc MPs crossing the floor to the NDP, especially if the number of seats is close enough down the middle for a push towards forming a coalition government.

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  42. CPC 141
    NDP 102
    LIB 53
    BQ 10
    IND 1 James Ford not Andre Arthur
    GRN 1

    NDP+LIB+GRN=156 seats. Also have a feeling about the shy tory factor and that it will push the Conservatives around 150, though its hard to see them above 60-65 seats in Ontario which will be the key.

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  43. Prediction:

    Tories - 150
    NDP - 70
    Libs - 60
    Bloc - 28

    I find it a stretch that BCVoR gets such an optimistic result for the Tories, especially since his prediction was made April 27th, which was a low point for the Tories.

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  44. Am I the only one who noticed the Bloc candidate for Laurier-Sainte-Marie seems to hold an extremely precarious position? Did I misread the riding projections, or is there an elephant in the room?

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  45. Angus Reid polled me Saturday extensively on voting intentions so expect a major release from them on Sunday. Personally I anticipate major Liberal pushback by Monday with many fewer NDP seats than lots of these eJackulations on roids project.

    Captcha=hempario!

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  46. Great work Eric. I have been following your site for a while. Thanks for all of your efforts.

    In the spirit, I hereby offer my seat projection by province West to East:

    CON (23+27+13+9+57+9+7+3+1+3+2) = 154
    NDP (13+1+0+4+19+27+1+5+0+2+0) = 72
    LIB (0+0+1+1+30+8+2+3+3+2+1) = 51
    BQ (0+0+0+0+0+30+0+0+0+0+0) = 30
    IND (0+0+0+0+0+1+0+0+0+0+0) = 1

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  47. tweet from Frank Graves .....

    "i imagine the CPC internals are showing what we are seeing now, might explain the drive-by massage gambit"

    Looks grim for Harper. They are talking possible outright win for Layton.

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  48. Eric ... "The ceilings are based on the best polls for each party in each week. The projection can be different."

    I guess I wasn't clear originally. In my mind, it seems contradictory for a ceiling to project a worse performance than the normal projection - even if for just one region.

    If the projection indicates that 9 seats are possible in Quebec, it seems very odd to say the ceiling is 8 seats in Quebec. Maybe it's a semantic discussion or something, but it doesn't seem correct to call something a ceiling if it's less than the regular output.

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  49. Hi,

    I will be interesting to do floor projection for each party with the worst regional projection.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Conservative
    lead narrows to 6 per cent over NDP




    Following are the results of three-day tracking completed by
    Nanos Research on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail. (Results from
    March 15 in brackets)


    Conservatives: 37 per cent (38.6 per cent)
    New Democrats: 30.6 (19.9 per cent)
    Liberals: 22.7 per cent (27.6 per cent)
    Bloc Quebecois: 5.5 per cent (10.1 per cent)
    reen Party: 3.2 per cent (3.8 per cent)

    ReplyDelete
  51. Tight race in Ontario means no majority for Harper. Today's Nanos poll has the Ontario gap at 5%, which is well within the MoE. The NDP should be able to capitalize on the Bloc collapse to capture not only Bloc seats but Conservative seats where the Bloc were once very competitive. (44 NDP 16 BQ 10 LIB 5 CON)

    My Projection:

    CON: 130
    NDP: 86
    LIB: 73
    BQ: 16
    GRN: 1
    IND: 2

    Province-by-Province Projection:
    [Terr, BC, AB, SK, MB, ON, QC, NB, NS, PE, NL]
    CON (1+19+26+12+9+50+5+5+1+1+1) = 130
    NDP (1+11+1+1+4+18+44+1+4+0+1) = 86
    LIB (1+5+0+1+1+37+10+4+6+3+5) = 73
    BQ = 16 in Québec
    GRN = Elizabeth May's BC Seat
    IND = Ford (AB) + Guergis (ON)

    ReplyDelete
  52. .. just wanted to thank you Eric, for your hard work and your thoughtful and informed contribution to our country's discourse. I've spread the word on Facebook and to all my politicojunkie friends.

    ReplyDelete
  53. I am perplexed by the polls + projections in Quebec.

    How can the NDP be way ahead in first spot + still get half the number of seats to the BQ??

    It's like everyone is suffering from massive congnitive dissonance or am I missing something.

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  54. Eric,

    I know you're very busy today, but any idea how one could possibly explain the new COMPAS poll that has the Tories with a 20-pt lead on the NDP (and 29-pt lead on the Libs)?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Small sample size (750), MOE. I'm going to be including it, but with such a small sample and their track record it won't have a huge impact.

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  56. Anonymous 09:38,

    The projection doesn't have the NDP that far ahead in Quebec, at least not at this point. Maybe by tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Nanos's final poll in 2008 had the Tories at 34.2%. They underestimated by 3.4%.

    Their final poll in 2011 has the Tories at 37%. Based on the last election, is it safe to guess they may end up at 40.4%, or is this just grasping at straws?

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  58. But even at the lower end of COMPAS's MOE (-3.6%) that would put the Tories at 42.4%.

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  59. Great Work Eric, I really appreciate your diligence.

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  60. The interesting thing about the COMPAS poll is that depending on how you ask the questions, you can get a Tory result of 45%.

    They asked other questions beforehand, which led people to question their choice, so I think it's only reflecting very very committed voters, but it's still an interesting result.

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  61. People need to keep in mind that 20% of the vote has already been cast in several ridings. This vote was cast on April 22-25.

    People need to also keep in mind that the NDP will not get all of its vote tot he polls, It just won't. .

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  62. Thanks from me, too Eric - both for the research and the posts, but also for your most excellent moderation of the comments.

    .

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  63. KS from Edmonton. Quick sampling of residential neighborhoods indicates many more signs for Duncan than Hastman.

    In the absence of strategic voting, I cannot see how vote-splitting between the libs and the dippers in Ontario and elsewhere wont help the tories. Likewise, splitting in the federalist vote in Quebec should help the Bloc do better than expected.

    My Projection :
    CON 154
    NDP 74
    Lib 47
    Bloc 32
    Ind 1

    ReplyDelete
  64. Actually, the COMPAS poll is fascinating, read the whole report.

    What it is essentially doing is giving low and high water marks for the parties by asking questions about the stability of the vote.

    Their conclusion is that the NDP could get anywhere from 27-36% of the vote, which is probably the most honest assessment of any pollster.

    The Conservatives get their high water mark in the top line because their voters are much more stable and committed after being asked questions that lead then to doubt their vote.

    It's a great poll for this election. It gives various numbers for only counting respondents who can name their local candidate for example, which they say is of course not necessary, but gives an indication of engagement and commitment to vote.

    This is a great poll. People who only look at top line numbers will hate it and call it bogus. I think it's probing some reasons for what we might see on May 2nd.

    ReplyDelete
  65. It's amazing how divergent the various projection blogs have been. Many have the NDP over 100 seats. Some, like this one, have the NDP still in 3rd place around 50. Aside from underlining the unreliability of "scientific" polling, it speaks to the unprecedented level of uncertainty in this election. Who knows what will happen?

    I tend to think some of the NDP support will recede on election day, so we could well see the Libs end up with more seats.

    My final count in round numbers for the pool:

    CPC: 145
    LPC: 65
    NDP: 60
    BQ: 35


    That's what I think will happen. What I want to happen is for the LIB+NDP number to hit 155. But that's probably not happening...

    Thanks for this site.

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  66. scrolling down these pages on a mobile is becoming difficult.

    I don't think we have a shy tory factor here in canada. i think looking at 2004 and 2006 its more accurate to say we have or had a shy liberal factor. The conservative bounce in 2008 was from a ground game and enthused voters who turned up when others didn't. so a tory bounce could happen if turnout is poor if liberals and bloc are dejected and ndp voters can't get to the polls. otherwise we'll see the opposite.

    Compass' previous poll used only the tightest of voter screens, hence the numbers make snese under conditions of very poor turnout..

    ReplyDelete
  67. Hear, hear, Chris. And thanks again to Éric for this site and the analysis therein.

    I'll throw my hat into the ring with a completely unscientific guess:

    CPC: 140
    NDP: 84
    LPC: 50
    BQ: 32
    Green: 1
    Ind: 1

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  68. Tom said above: "Thus the PC grab up to 5 seats in the 905 region"

    Where are these seats in the 905 region? The only ridings that I can think of are Brampton. Driving through Mississauga, you can easily see that the Liberals have got all the ridings save for Erindale which was already CPC. The NDP here is nonexistant - I've seen maybe 3 or 4 signs. I suspect that the NDP is like this in other parts of Ontario as well. This will definitely be an exciting election. To be honest, I think that the Libs and the NDP will be able to form a majority - just barely.

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  69. Save a Caring Canada01 May, 2011 12:03

    I do hope progressive voters will think long and hard about their choice on Monday. Vote splitting can hand the Conservatives a majority in the same way Reform and the PC splitting gave the Liberals a majority. If you do not want a Conservative majority, particularly if you are in Ontario, vote for the strongest Liberal or NDPer. Where there is a Liberal incumbent, that means a Liberal, or in ridings where the Liberal lost in 2008, that is a Liberal. Out West, it is likely, an NDP vote, except in Liberal held ridings. The worst outcome would be a Conservative majority with 35% of the votes. They'd claim a mandate from the people anyway. We need a change in the system to run off elections in each riding. No 50%, no seat without a run off. In works in tin pot democracies and some cities in the US. Now is the time in Canada.

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  70. The latest Forum poll has it 35% for the Conservatives, 33% for the NDP, 19% for the Liberals.

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  71. New from Forum:
    CPC 35, NDP 33, LPC 19

    And from Abacus:
    CPC 37, NDP 32, LPC 18 (GPC & BQ 7)

    ReplyDelete
  72. Just wondering, do you also have any figures for the 'floors' of each party...i.e. the lowest number of seats each party is likely to get?

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  73. Kevin, no one has said anything about shy Tories. There aren't Tories hiding their votes from pollsters. They are just much more likely to actually go out and vote. The same is true today as it was in 2008, perhaps more so.

    This is very different than being a shy Tory. There may be Tories that were too busy watching Hockey playoffs and UFC fighting to bother with a poll though.

    Because of strong organizing for advanced voting by Conservatives and Liberals this election, as well as the holiday, I think, 15-20% of the vote is already cast, which people keep forgetting.

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  74. I just turned voting age 5 months ago and I am
    extremely excited about voting. I am in the hotly contested simcoe-grey riding that may
    have the conservative vote split between Leitch ( CPC ) and con independent Guergis. I'm voting Liberal strategically without any prejudice towards Mr. Layton - whose party will likely not diminish Liberal chances much here. I don't think Harper is going to come close to sweeping Ontario ridings to offset Quebec....Anyways, regardless, thanks for this site. It takes a lot of work and I along with many really appreciate it !!!

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  75. Did you guys see the seat projection that came with the 35-33 Forum poll? They project 147 Tory seats! How is this possible with only a 2% national lead?

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  76. Based on my personal riding by riding analysis my prognostics are the following:

    CPC 139

    NDP 91

    Liberal 62

    Bloc 15

    Green 1

    Peripeton

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  77. Dan--because they do a uniform national swing, which would mean lots of Conservative gains from the Bloc but almost no NDP ones. We know that's not true, but a UNS seat calculator doesn't.

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  78. Can anyone post a link to the Forum poll? It's hard to find.

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  79. Amateur Psephologist01 May, 2011 14:09

    Has anyone found the detailed spreadsheets for the Forum poll - I couldn't find them on the Hill Times website? They also said the NDP # in Quebec held strong at 33; must have meant 43?

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  80. Amateur Psephologist01 May, 2011 15:11

    I have just got the answer to my own question emailed to me from Lorne Bozinoff at Forum. So let me report to all of you starving for data: They present the numbers with an Ontario breakdown of GTA and rest of Ontario and all of Ontario. Similarly, they do Montreal and Rest of Quebec. So, I will lay out the data for those who can't find it, as follows:
    In each region, C, L, N, G, B; and reporting regions from right to left on the map:

    AT: 35, 26, 30, 8, 0
    QC: 16, 13, 44, 5, 21
    MTL: 11, 18, 49, 6, 16
    RoQC: 20, 9, 41, 4, 25
    ON: 36, 25, 31, 7, 0
    GTA: 40, 30, 26, 4, 0
    RoON: 34, 22, 34, 9, 0
    MN/SK: 45, 15, 33, 5, 0
    AB: 59, 11, 19, 10, 0
    BC: 39, 15, 37, 9, 0

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  81. Amateur Psephologist01 May, 2011 15:28

    So, I am assuming that all the polls are now available. So, I will give you a most provocative forecast, based most heavily on the raft of recent polls that show the NDP and Tories from 6 to 3 points apart, and where. I also am not discounting the numbers I see because of shy Tories, undercounting of Tories last time, or any other reliance on history repeating itself in an election that is all about history being repudiated. I seem to recall that one of the most powerful urban myths was that Jack would never get far in Ontario because of the fell hand of Bob Rae. Let's see whether that one lasts to the end of tomorrow night.

    I also think that we will later find that a significant number of Canadians rallied to Jack's side, at the last moment, because of the dirty tricks department at the Sun. It would not surprise me, if Nanos runs a poll today, to see that his huge leap for Jack to lead on his leadership index, was the precursor to an even bigger shift in votes by tomorrow. Hang on to your hats...

    So, my forecast, as follows, with seats shown as C, L, N, B:
    AT: 12, 10, 10
    QC: 4, 2, 60, 9
    ON: 55, 16, 33
    MN-SK: 21, 1, 6
    AL: 27, 0, 1
    BC: 17, 2, 17
    TR: 1, 1,1
    TOTAL: 137, 32, 130, 9

    We shall see...

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  82. Thanks for the Forum breakdown, Amateur Psephologist! Much appreciated.

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  83. But it doesn't match the Hill Times article. Can you forward that email to me?

    threehundredeight@gmail.com

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  84. Aaron Kreider01 May, 2011 19:01

    2 million Canadians have already voted.

    Ideally you'd weight the latest polls less heavily in ridings where more people did early voting.

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  85. Your analyses are always thorough and worthwhile reading.

    Based on a whole lot of poll reading (mostly at http://bit.ly/glQjfG where all the polls, or most of them, are kept for posterity) here is my prediction:

    CPC - 163
    NDP - 88
    Liberals - 42
    Bloc - 14
    Independent (Arthur) - 1
    GRN - 0


    Ephraim

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  86. Thank you Eric.
    Well done!
    All the best!

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  87. Anonymous 19:01

    I have predicted the CPC will win 150 seats, including Arthur (please see my posting above). I have gone over and over the riding predictions and I can't for the life of me see where the CPC might find those extra 14 seats.
    Assuming as you have that the NDP have a huge breakthrough in Quebec winning 52 seats (they have 36 seats in the current house in the rest of Canada) and the Bloc win 14 and Arthur 1 that leaves 9 seats in Quebec between the LPC and the CPC. Minus then the 4 or 5 LPC safe seats in Montreal...leaves the CPC with a loss of 4 or 5 Quebec seats from 2008. They might make up a couple of those in Atlantic Canada but that would leave them needing to flip 24 or 25 seats in Ontario and there is really nothing to suggest that they are in a position to flip more than 10 at most.

    If you assume instead that the CPC will retain their seats in Quebec, then the NDP would need to win a bunch of new seats in the rest of Canada, including flipping CPC seats in BC, Sask and Ontario to meet their 88 seat total.

    The permutations in this election are mind boggling, don't you think?

    Please note, I do not take this electoral prognostication stuff as seriously as I do my playoff predictions. Canucks over the Preds in 6. :)

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  88. Aaron Kreider said...
    "2 million Canadians have already voted.

    Ideally you'd weight the latest polls less heavily in ridings where more people did early voting."

    I may be missing something, but as long as the polls include people who already voted, I don't think that any adjustment needs to be done. Presumably, those that already voted would indicate their preference to vote for the people they actually voted for. As such, they're already included in the current polls.

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  89. Seems fishy to me that the NDP surge started after the advance polls opened.

    Do people who use advance polls bother answering EKOS autodiallers after they've finished?

    Do people who vote NDP use advance polls?

    2 million pre-surge votes could turn this whole thing on it's head.
    JEff

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  90. Target list for the NDP for swings of up to 10%:

    bit.ly/l9QPDZ

    Target list for the Conservatives for swings of up to 10%:

    http://bit.ly/l9QPDZ

    I'm going to extend the NDP target list because a 10% swing would only yield them an extra 26 seats and a lot of the polls indicate they could gain more seats than that.

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  91. Jeff,

    There is nothing to suggest either of your questions have any basis in fact. The advance polls have always quite closely mirrored the actual polls. As would be expected.

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  92. Final Nanos is out!
    37.1 to 31.6

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  93. Is EKOS supposed to release final numbers? Doesn't he have to have them out by 10:30 ET because it'll be 12:00 in Newfoundland?

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  94. I’ve just had another look through all the Quebec constituencies. A 15% uniform swing to the NDP would only increase Layton’s number of seats in the province from 1 to 10. (A 15% swing would be required to wipe out a 30% margin of victory).

    So 65 out of Quebec’s total of 75 seats would require a swing of more than 15% for an NDP gain.

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  95. The final polls are out, so interesting to see what the projections will be. Mine are

    Cons 146
    NDP 87
    Libs 54
    BQ 20
    Ind 1 (Andre Arthur)

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  96. Having watched the last 30 days of this farce of an election I've come to one conclusion: the western part of Canada will never tolerate eastern Canada's embrace of socialism and vice versa eastern Canada will never tolerate western Canada's lack of interest in socialism. It's time we all went our separate ways. Why waste time trying to make the unworkable work?!?

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  97. Still waiting for you last projection -- Eric, you're such a tease! How many times do you want us to hit Refresh :oD

    Patrick from BC
    146C, 56L, 87N, 19B, 0G

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  98. This is my forecast:

    PCC: 158
    LPC: 57
    NDP: 69
    BQ: 23
    I: 1

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  99. "but there’s no chance they’re going to get a majority" - Frank Graves, today

    Chutzpah?

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  100. Eric sends his regards. Adjustments to his model will now require his final projection to be published on TUESDAY.

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  101. My prediction: PC 158, Lib 65, NDP 65, BQ 28.

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  102. The model was not extremely accurate, especially when it comes to BQ and Liberals.
    Also, we can now say for sure that pollsters have an anti CPC bias.
    Looking at the numbers, the closest prediction was that of the latest polls.
    Oh well, at least we'll get a rest for the next 4 years. It has been fun.

    Regards,
    Al

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  103. Thanks for posting everyday.. libs and bloc threw your numbers off!

    great analysis every day!

    Take care

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  104. Here's what I predicted on Sunday:

    <<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>

    ...
    So, as I write:
    1 under on Green
    1 to 3 under on my CPC number.
    13 to 15 under on my NDP number.
    9 to 10 over on Liberals
    10 over on BQ
    1 over on Independent

    I made 2 key errors. I underestimated the NDP strength everywhere (which hurt Liberals, hurt Bloc numbers, took out Andre Arthur and boosted some Conservative numbers where I didn't think they'd win and hurt them where I thought they would win). I thought I saw a drop-back of the NDP surge over the weekend. I didn't, or at least it didn't. The second key error came in under-estimating Elizabeth May. I still can't understand how this shrill American won.

    Thanks for all your efforts.

    Ephraim

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