So, Nanos Research has come along with a new poll and boy howdy it's an interesting one.Nanos has been out of the federal polling game for the summer (lazy buggers) so our last point of comparison is their May 29 to June 3 poll. Since then, the Conservatives have lost 2.3 points and now stand at 33.3%. The Liberals, meanwhile, have gained more than the margin of error and are up 3.6 points to 32.8%. In statistical land, that is a virtual tie. Or a six point gap. But nevertheless, it helps confirm EKOS's findings from last week. It's on!
The New Democrats are way down, however, dropping 5.1 points to 15.6%. The Bloc Québécois is at 12.1% (gaining more than they did in Quebec itself, oddly) while the Greens are up 1.1 to 6.2%. Remember that Nanos doesn't prompt, which is one of the reasons we get low Green numbers from them.
The biggest news of this poll has to be Ontario, where the Liberals have gained 10.8 points and now stand at 43.2%. It's a little high, but the trend is good for Michael Ignatieff. The Conservatives are down seven points to 36.2% while the NDP is down 5.9 points to a very dangerous 13.2%.
In Quebec, the Bloc is up 2.1 points to 40.7% while the Liberals are up 2.7 points to 27.3%. Both parties would be happy with those results. The Conservatives are down 3.7 points to 15.6% and the NDP is down three points to 10.8%.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives are down 9.9 points to 29.4% and the Liberals are up 8.1 points to 29.4%. The NDP is down two points to 25.6% and the Greens are up 3.7 points to 15.5%. Odd numbers.
Atlantic Canada is fun. There, the Tories are up 11 points to 45.3% while the Liberals are at 38.7%. That is a little hard to believe, but helps off-set the BC result. The NDP is down 12 points to 13.6%, while the Bloc is at 1.2%. Huh? Yeah, the Bloc is at 1.2% in Atlantic Canada. I'm going to say that's a typo, but if you add up all the numbers in Atlantic Canada you get to 100%, so perhaps some jokester in Newfoundland (I know who you are) said they were voting Bloc.
Nanos infuriatingly combines Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba into one mega region, meaning I can't use the numbers in my projection. But there the Conservatives are at 52.8%, up 11, while the Liberals are down six to 23.9% and the NDP is down two to 22%.
Because of the Mega Prairies, I have to use the site's current projection for Alberta and the Prairies to get a seat projection here. Using those numbers, the Conservatives win 64 seats in the West and North, 38 in Ontario, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and 5 in Quebec for a total of 119.
The Liberals win 60 seats in Ontario, 19 in Atlantic Canada, 18 in the West and North, and 17 in Quebec for a total of 114.
The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.
The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 8 in Ontario, and one apiece in Quebec and Atlantic Canada for a total of 23.
Really bad numbers here for the NDP, relatively great numbers for the Liberals. The Tories still have the edge, but no one believes they could govern very long with a plurality of five. This poll is just one poll, but it does give a little more weight to the close polls we've seen lately from EKOS and Harris-Decima. It should make for an interesting September.