Monday, September 20, 2010

NB CBC poll added to projection

As Don Mills of the Corporate Research Associates has informed me that their poll conducted for the CBC and L'Acadie Nouvelle is, in fact, completely different from the daily polling conducted for the Telegraph-Journal, I have decided to add it to the projection model. It is a good poll to have in it because it is so large and concentrated on fewer days than the daily TJ poll. Accordingly, it has changed the projection significantly.Compared to where they were this morning, the Progressive Conservatives have picked up two seats and are now projected to win 31. The Liberals have been reduced by two to 23 seats, while the New Democrats remain at one.

In terms of the popular vote, the PCs are up one full point to 44.5% while the Liberals are done 1.2 points to 40.1%. The New Democrats are down 0.3 to 9.7% and the Greens are up 0.4 points to 4.2%. The People's Alliance and independents are up 0.2 points to 1.5%.


  1. Don't you think the "decided and leaning" numbers are the ones to use that is the more standard practice and also increases the sample size of decided voters?

  2. I think the decided numbers are better, but I'm often not given the option of choosing between decideds and decideds+leaners.

  3. Eric did you catch the new Quebec numbers?

    Pretty interesting stuff.

    The Ignatieff slide is on!

  4. There is a HD poll now too:

    33-30-14 (bloc at 38)

    Eric's house poll effects put the liberal number 1 pt higher, and the tories 2.5 higher. Bloc 3 lower

    That's 35.5,31,14 (bloc at 35)

    ....I am thinking the NDP isn't wanting an election right now, even if Iggy does.


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