Monday, September 13, 2010

New Environics Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

After about two months of silence, Environics is back with a new federal poll. The top-line results show that not much has changed over the summer, but the regional results tell a somewhat different story.Compared to Environics' July poll, the Conservatives are unchanged at 35%. The Liberals are down one to 31% while the New Democrats are up one to 16%.

While the trend isn't exactly what we've been seeing elsewhere, both parties over 30% is certainly something we have seen.

The Bloc Québécois is at 9% (unchanged) and the Greens are at 7% (up one).

Among men, Conservatives lead the Liberals 39% to 29%. Among women, however, the Liberals are ahead 33% to 30%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are up a big seven points to 43% (a little high). The Liberals are down five to 33%. The NDP is steady at 15% while the Greens are at 7%.

The Bloc is up one in Quebec and leads with 38%. The Liberals are up seven to 33% (very high), while the Conservatives are down eight to 11% (very low). The NDP is down two to 10%.

The Conservatives are down three in British Columbia and lead with 35%. The Liberals are up three to 30% while the NDP is down four to 23%. The Greens are up three to 10%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 38%, where the NDP is up seven to 27%.

The Conservatives lead with 58% in Alberta, while the Liberals are down five to 22%.

Finally, in the Prairies the Conservatives are down five to 38% while the NDP is up 17 to 32%. The Liberals are down ten to 18%.

The Conservatives win 65 seats in the West and North, 60 in Ontario, seven in Atlantic Canada, and two in Quebec for a total of 134. The big result in Ontario is what keeps the Tories in power.

The Liberals win 35 seats in Ontario, 21 in Quebec, 20 in Atlantic Canada, and 18 in the West and North for a total of 94.

The Bloc wins 51 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 12 seats in the West, 11 in Ontario, five in Atlantic Canada, and one in Quebec for a total of 29.

The Conservatives can certainly be happy with 35% nationwide and 43% in Ontario, but their low result in British Columbia and their woeful result in Quebec is nothing to be happy about. Conversely, the Liberals should be pleased with the 33% in Quebec and 30% in British Columbia, but should be very afraid of the 10-point gap in Ontario.

Something for everyone in this poll - even the NDP can be pleased with their result in the Prairies.

Nothing much else to say about this poll, as it neither confirms nor disproves any of the current polling "narratives".