Monday, September 13, 2010

New Environics Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

After about two months of silence, Environics is back with a new federal poll. The top-line results show that not much has changed over the summer, but the regional results tell a somewhat different story.Compared to Environics' July poll, the Conservatives are unchanged at 35%. The Liberals are down one to 31% while the New Democrats are up one to 16%.

While the trend isn't exactly what we've been seeing elsewhere, both parties over 30% is certainly something we have seen.

The Bloc Québécois is at 9% (unchanged) and the Greens are at 7% (up one).

Among men, Conservatives lead the Liberals 39% to 29%. Among women, however, the Liberals are ahead 33% to 30%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are up a big seven points to 43% (a little high). The Liberals are down five to 33%. The NDP is steady at 15% while the Greens are at 7%.

The Bloc is up one in Quebec and leads with 38%. The Liberals are up seven to 33% (very high), while the Conservatives are down eight to 11% (very low). The NDP is down two to 10%.

The Conservatives are down three in British Columbia and lead with 35%. The Liberals are up three to 30% while the NDP is down four to 23%. The Greens are up three to 10%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 38%, where the NDP is up seven to 27%.

The Conservatives lead with 58% in Alberta, while the Liberals are down five to 22%.

Finally, in the Prairies the Conservatives are down five to 38% while the NDP is up 17 to 32%. The Liberals are down ten to 18%.

The Conservatives win 65 seats in the West and North, 60 in Ontario, seven in Atlantic Canada, and two in Quebec for a total of 134. The big result in Ontario is what keeps the Tories in power.

The Liberals win 35 seats in Ontario, 21 in Quebec, 20 in Atlantic Canada, and 18 in the West and North for a total of 94.

The Bloc wins 51 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 12 seats in the West, 11 in Ontario, five in Atlantic Canada, and one in Quebec for a total of 29.

The Conservatives can certainly be happy with 35% nationwide and 43% in Ontario, but their low result in British Columbia and their woeful result in Quebec is nothing to be happy about. Conversely, the Liberals should be pleased with the 33% in Quebec and 30% in British Columbia, but should be very afraid of the 10-point gap in Ontario.

Something for everyone in this poll - even the NDP can be pleased with their result in the Prairies.

Nothing much else to say about this poll, as it neither confirms nor disproves any of the current polling "narratives".


  1. I think 43% in Ontario for the Liberals and 33% for the Conservatives sounds more likely, that's close to what the new ipsos reid poll is showing.

  2. Accounting for environics house effects this isn't actually that bad a poll for the CPC:



  3. Its worth noting that both the Ipsos and Environics polls have the NDP up 1% compared to a month ago - so much for all these half-baked theories about the gun registry being an issue for anyone outside the Liberal blogosphere.

  4. DL,

    Yes, because getting a leg up from 15% to 16%, when before you polled 18-20%, is really proving your theory right there.

  5. This thing is way off from the Ipsos-Reid I sent you the link for Eric?

  6. And where will it all lead? Well, Andrew Cohen has a theory I think I've heard before.

  7. For those who want the true story of the Fox North attack.

    Under Attack

  8. Great Link Peter :)

    Is there a book burning associated with this American lead attack on Canadian freedom of speech?

    Any idea if any Canadians are actually donating to support Avaas?

  9. shdow, not sure which line you were reading for house effects for the liberals for environics.

    I get +1 tories, -3 liberals, +2 NDP from eric's chart.

    Which would be 36-28-18.

    Completely acceptable. Not to mention that the spread has increased 1 point since the last poll.

    Eric noted the regional changes. Specifically Ontario The tories with a 10 point lead... whereas the last ipso poll just released gives them more favorable results everywhere else, but a 10 point deficit in Ontario... Combining the results, its probably closer to a tie.

    The Quebec numbers? Tories at 11, liberals at 33? We haven't seen any numbers like that from any polling organization lately. I am thinking they are just plain wrong. (It's probably still to early to see if the arena (manufactured) controversy has had any affect on polling numbers.)

  10. Shadow the Environics house effect is CPC - 1 Liberal +3 and NDP -2 so the current poll :

    35-30-16 actually is 36-27-18.

    This is a better CPC result than the polls taken the week prior to the last election

  11. Are we back to linking your own blog again Peter?

    Why do you think it is ok for the people at Avaaz to smear a legitimate news organization and not expect the people at QMI to respond?

    But then again you seem to have decided that they are a bunch of lairs.. "fraudlulently attacking" the fine American led institution interfering in Canadian discourse...

    Are they?

    "They've also admitted suspicious insider knowledge" oooooohhhhh. Not to mention actually doing some journalism and trying to see if the petition was set up for actually petitioning... or for booming up numbers to make it look big and change opinion that way.

    Which was the fraud again?

    All in all a perfect example of why we need QMI's new news station.... someone to do some journalistic work into organizations such as this.... Rather than just reprint and enjoy the propaganda as several media sources have done.

  12. Hey Barcs

    get your story together. Firstly they didn't smear Sun TV. They expressed a desire to NOT have it be a mandated carry. It's called them exercising their freedom of speech. Got that?

    Then Sun got nasty.

    Read this and try to understand !!

  13. BC

    No more book burning than in the case of the US NRA meddling in the Long Gun Registry situation.

    Oh and it is NOT an American lead attack despite the CPC "spin". These are all canadians. Get used to it unlike the NRA meddling !

  14. Eric

    Is there anyway to analyze/ predict the impact of the Long Gun Registry being kept will have on the election results?

    The 20 "turncoat" rural Liberal and NDP seats will all be targeted and have a significantly better chance of sending a CPC representative.

    The minor shifts of a few thousand votes to get Wayne Easter replaced by a CPC MP would not register on any polls, would it?

    Is there any CPC seat losses that will driven by the LGR being kept?
    or even shut down?

    I think the LGR has been and is a waste of money. However if the LGR is kept I sure see it as a solid contribution to a CPC Majority.

  15. "Firstly they didn't smear Sun TV."

    .... "Fox news north".... might not be a smear in my view, more a selling point.... but it certainly seems to be a smear in your view.

    And yes I read about the NRA link, and the one you posted... both from the CBC.... actively campaigning against abolishing the gun registry and not allowing Sun TV equal rights to compete with them.

    You are really doing a good job proving the need for actual Journalists. Thank you Peter

    "Oh and it is NOT an American lead attack despite the CPC "spin". These are all canadians."

    I'll ask you to remember that the next time you are campaigning against selling a Canadian company to an American parent company. By your (current) definition it will still be a Canadian company, and therefore completely acceptable to you. yes?

  16. Barcs are you saying, as it seems you are, that I have no right to Free Speech or to protest the actions of companies or Govts?

    Too bad that you live in the wrong country for that kind of viewpoint.

    May have been true of the USSR but it is NOT true here.

    Secondly if there is one thing Fox News does NOT do it is true journalism !!

    If you really think it is then move South.

  17. I think the whole poll is an outlier(eric speak) Only the maritime results fall into line. Come on, libs 30 in BC 33 in Q and 33 in Ontario? Ontario would make sense if the libs were @26% nationaly.This poll is seriously out of whack when the cons have 38%in SaskMan and 43% in Ont. Grain of salt please? ps the anti long gun bill is toast-you read it here first. NDP #s are too weak-they have to go back to their base which is pro registry.

  18. "Secondly if there is one thing Fox News does NOT do it is true journalism !!"

    That is the first point we disagree on. The news portion is very well done. And yes it is objective. Its the night time talk that is quite partisan. (almost as partisan as MSNBC and CNN, the CBC, the star, etc in what they call their "journalism".

    "Barcs are you saying, as it seems you are, that I have no right to Free Speech or to protest the actions of companies or Govts?"

    This is the second in the many disagreements.... except I don't disagree. I just think that your paranoid delusions seeking conspiracy around every corner because it isn't a hard left government are over the top and almost completely unfounded based on the flimsy evidence (and hearsay of people with an agenda) that you come up with.

    You are of course quite free to disagree and voice that with the government. It's the "truther mentality" in you that I find off-putting.

  19. "the anti long gun bill is toast-you read it here first. NDP #s are too weak-they have to go back to their base which is pro registry."

    I think you are right... Layton will likely be able to save the wedge issue for Harper to use again.

    I think you will see the other 4 NDP MP's against the registry come around too to party unity. Like the other 4 who have cited their annoyance with the tories outweighs the wishes of the people they represent.

    I am tho, not convinced that the liberals will all show up even though the vote is whipped. I fully expect the tories to turn the heat back up on those guys too in the days leading up to the vote.

    Really this vote is just a dramatic peak in the storyline tho. Yes it could kill the bill... which will be reintroduced in some form later. A similar one cannot be introduced in this session, but it will eventually come back. And if it passes??? nothing happens... it continues to the report stage, and there will be a vote at 3rd reading. This motion is really just a stunt to allow an extra try at killing the bill. If it doesn't pass.. there will just be a do-over in a couple months.

  20. "It's the "truther mentality" in you that I find off-putting. "

    Yes it must come as a real shock given your alliance with the Spin and Talking Points people.


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