Wednesday, September 15, 2010

PCs now lead by 12

The new TJ/CRA today gives David Alward's Progressive Conservatives a staggering 12-point lead over Shawn Graham's Liberals.Compared to yesterday, the Progressive Conservatives are unchanged at 49%. The Liberals have dropped another point and are now at 37%. The New Democrats have picked up one point and are back into double-digits with 10%.

The Greens and People's Alliance are unchanged at 4% and less than 1%, respectively.

Note that polling ended on September 13, before yesterday's debates. And since the debates were broadcast in the evening, we probably won't see any effect until Friday's polling data.

Things are going well for the PCs as the Liberals fall away. This poll would give the Progressive Conservatives 40 seats, reducing the Liberals to only 14. The NDP would win one seat.

David Alward is the best man for the job of Premier for 29% of New Brunswickers (up one). Graham gets 24% (also up one) while Roger Duguay is at 7% (down one). Jack MacDougall and Kris Austin are unchanged at 3% and 1%, respectively.

Taking out the undecideds and none-of-the-aboves, that's 45% for Alward, 38% for Graham, and 11% for Duguay.

In terms of the projection, the Progressive Conservative majority has grown by one seat to 29. The Liberals have been reduced by two seats to 24 while the New Democrats are up one to two seats.

The Progressive Conservatives are up 0.1 points in the popular vote to 42.8%. The Liberals are down 0.3 to 40.8% and the NDP is up 0.3 to 11.7%.


  1. These results make no sense. Is there any way of assessing the validity of the poll? It coming form one of our famous New Brunswick newspapers, its neutrality is definitely suspect. I can't help wondering whether it is pushing for a result, rather than reporting one.

  2. Why do you say that these results make no sense, Downes? They certainly jive with the consensus I've been hearing lately. I simply can't understand why some are so shocked that the most unpopular premier in Canada is on course for a double-digit drubbing at the polls.

    As for the neutrality of New Brunswick's newspapers: it's no secret who their parent Irving Company supports in this campaign, and it certainly isn't the Progressive Conservatives.

  3. Graham's unpopularity at the start of the campaign was the same as now, and yet according to your charts they were basically tied on the 2nd, and in about two weeks the Tories have a 12 point lead (and even larger as of today)? That's what doesn't make sense.

    And I would suggest that the 'consensus' you've been hearing is based on this one set of poll results.

    That's why I'm wondering whether there's some way to validate the poll results. I'm not saying it's impossible - the attack ads seem to have had an impact. But it still seems to me that the polls are leading, not following, public opinion.


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