Tuesday, September 14, 2010

PCs roar ahead in New Brunswick

The daily Telegraph-Journal/Corporate Research Associates poll is now showing some serious movement, as the Progressive Conservatives have opened up a huge 11-point lead over the governing Liberals.Compared to yesterday, 49% is a three point gain for the Progressive Conservatives, all at the expense of the Liberals who are down to 38%.

The New Democrats, Greens, and People's Alliance are unchanged at 9%, 4%, and less than 1% respectively.

This is a huge shift, with a statistically close five point gap expanding to 11 points. This will certainly set the tone for the debate tonight, though we will only see whether they have an effect starting on Thursday.

With this 49% to 38% PC lead, David Alward's party would win 38 seats and form a solid majority. The Liberals would be reduced to 16 seats and the New Democrats would win one.

Alward is still the favourite to be Premier with 28% (44% of decideds). He is followed by Shawn Graham at 23% (37% of decideds) and Roger Duguay at 8% (13% of decideds). Duguay has picked up a point since yesterday, while Graham is down two. Jack MacDougall of the Greens is also down: one point to 3% (5% of decideds). Kris Austin is still at 1% (2% of decideds).

In terms of the site's overall projection, compared to last night's update there is no change. I'm still projecting 28 seats for the Progressive Conservatives, 26 for the Liberals, and one for the New Democrats. Compared to September 10's projection, this is a gain of two seats for the PCs at the expense of the Liberals.

Compared to last night, the Progressive Conservatives are bumped up 0.7 points to 42.7% of the popular vote, while the Liberals are down 0.7 points to 41.1%. Compared to September 10, that is a drop of 1.2 points for the Liberals and a gain of 2.1 points for the Progressive Conservatives.

The New Democrats are down 0.1 points to 11.4%, while the Greens are still at 3.7% and the People's Alliance and independents are at 1.1%.