Tuesday, September 14, 2010

New Ipsos Poll: 3-pt Conservative Lead

Ipsos-Reid has a new poll out, showing very little change at the national level from their last poll, taken between August 4th and August 9th. But the regionals tell a very different story that actual goes along with some of the political narrative we've seen lately.Both the Conservatives and Liberals have held steady, at 34% and 31% respectively. The New Democrats are up one to 16%, as is the Bloc Québécois at 10%.

The Greens hold firm at 9%.

But when we get down to the regional level we see that the Conservatives have made gains in the West while losing ground in Ontario. The Liberals, on the other hand, are up big in Ontario (and Atlantic Canada) and down in the West. Could this be a long gun registry thing?

Let's start in Ontario, where the Liberals lead with 41%. That is up six points from early August, and is a huge number for them. The Conservatives are down three to 33% (bad) while the NDP is down one to 15% (also bad). The Greens have dropped one to 10% in the province.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up one to 39% and has a big lead over the Liberals, who are down two to 22%. The Conservatives are up one to 17% and the NDP is up four big ones to 16%.

The Tories have gained three in British Columbia and are at 41%. The Liberals follow with 25% (down eight) while the NDP is up one to 21%. The Greens are up five to 13%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 48%, up six. The Conservatives are up six to 34% and the NDP is down eight to a miniscule 13%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 61% to 17%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are up 11 points to 54%. The NDP is up nine to 23% and the Liberals are down 18 to 20%. That sounds like a lot, but their 38% here in the last poll was a little unlikely.

The Conservatives win big in the West and North, taking 74 seats. The also win 32 in Ontario, eight in Atlantic Canada, and seven in Quebec for a total of 121.

The Liberals win big in Ontario, with 62 seats. They also win 24 in Atlantic Canada, 15 in the West and North, and 14 in Quebec for a total of 115.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP has a wretched time of it and wins only 12 seats in Ontario, six in the West, and two in Quebec for a total of 20.

While, of course, any poll with a lead is a good one for the Conservatives, their result in Ontario is very problematic. It's a good poll for the Liberals, on the other hand, though they need to be up a bit more in Quebec.

It is a very bad poll for the NDP. Usually the party can still take around 30 seats even at 15% nationally, but this 16% is spread out in the worst possible way. A lot of it is wasted in Quebec, and the party is shut out of Atlantic Canada. They need to be doing better everywhere.

This is just another in a set of polls that shows that there is an actual race between the Tories and the Grits, though Stephen Harper still has the advantage. It makes for an interesting fall political season.

42 comments:

  1. I don't think I can believe that the tories fell that fr in Ontario.

    The environics poll just on the early side of this poll gave the tories a 10 point nod 43-33. (which also seems a little off) But that same environics poll had the tories lower basically everywhere else but sky-higher in Ontario. I think that is somewhere in the middle with the liberals holding a small lead there. (and supermajorities in down town toronto benefit the liberals the same way 65% in alberta does the tories.


    And atlantic Canada. I didn't believe the NDP had fallen that far off the map, but checking the last couple polls ipsos, nanos, environics.. all have them at mid teens... I must have been watching something else when they nosedived.

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  2. Éric,

    Like Barcs, I like my polls relatively consistent. Those that have huge or relatively huge swings (either way) I tend to discount from the overall trend.

    I'd say it's a Conservative-Liberal horserace to the election unless something dramatic happens to make either party suddenly fall off the proverbial cliff.

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  3. Éric: This is just another in a set of polls that shows that there is an actual race between the Tories and the Grits, though Stephen Harper still has the advantage.

    Not to be monomaniacal, but I beg to differ on who has the advantage. If Harper fails to win massively, he loses. You know, that coalition thing?

    If Ignatieff has any grit, Zsuzsanna should be picking out an Inuit sculpture for the bedroom of 24 Sussex.

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  4. You can believe what you want John, But unless lib+ndp = majority....

    I don't think a lib/ndp coalition minority will hold up any longer after the next election than a Harper minonority would. The simple reason being the bloc have no more reason to support the other federalist party than they have to support the first federalist party. Beyond that, the liberals and the NDP are not nearly as close as they would appear when allied against Harper. One would grate against the other just as they did in the Martin minority.

    We may get a coalition after the next election. I would give it about 50-50. But I also wouldn't give it better than 50-50 to get through a whole year.

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  5. As past events have proven a Lib-NDP "coalition" has been remarkable stable.

    Witness the Pearson-Douglas informal version. Lasted 4 years.

    As to the Bloc they are far more likely to support that coalition than they are to support a Tory minority.

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  6. All,

    The three opposition parties want this Prime Minister to be history. Now, all they have to do is make it happen...

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  7. Barcs: We may get a coalition after the next election. I would give it about 50-50. But I also wouldn't give it better than 50-50 to get through a whole year.

    If we get a coalition, it will be stable for at least two years because it will be based on agreed terms. The agreement that Ignatieff rejected is a starting point.

    Yes, a Liberal/NDP (and perhaps Green) coalition would need Bloc support for every vote, but that won't be hard to earn. On issues not involving the separation of Quebec, the Bloc are reasonable, cooperative, hard-working MPs. They want to do what's best for the country.

    The coalition will have no formal agreement with the Bloc because that would be fear-fodder for the Tories. There will be an informal "no surprises" understanding: the coalition will not blindside the Bloc on any legislation. By the same token, the coalition will avoid having to back down in public if the Bloc sees something they can't support. They'll get it right first.

    It's called cooperative government. Coming soon to a Hill near you.

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  8. "As to the Bloc they are far more likely to support that coalition than they are to support a Tory minority."


    Based on what Peter? The Bloc's reason to be in Ottawa is to get Quebec out of Canada. And failing that they want to do the very best for the province. Get every piece of their fair share (and more if people will give it).

    But that's what everyone wants for their particular group.


    What makes you think the lib/ndp coalition would be better at providing that than the Tories?? The only way is if the purse strings get loosened even farther than They have under Harper. Or filing that transferring money to Quebec from other areas.

    The fact is, the Bloc doesn't have any reason to support any of the 3 federalist parties long term.

    A liberal NDP coalition will not last more than a year without a majority of seats between them. ... which peter, was the same caveat I said before, which Pearson/douglas didn't have to deal with now did they?

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  9. Roland- All four other parties also want the Liberal party to be destroyed and to come in 5th. (or they would all be happy voting Liberal)

    The debates in the next election will be interesting and telling.

    If I was Harper I would only agree to one on one debates.

    A debate between Layton and Ignatieff should be mandatory.

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  10. Peter,

    Wow! I'd call that one a shocker.

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  11. BC Voice of Reason,

    "If I was Harper I would only agree to one on one debates.

    A debate between Layton and Ignatieff should be mandatory."

    Very interesting piece of political strategy. I tip my hat to you on this one.

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  12. In truth the debates have become a bit of a joke. We basically wait for someone to say or do something their handlers told them not to do.

    I'd prefer to have a night where each leader gets to state their parties position, then all the others get to respond to it. Not yelling over each other or seeing who can do the best 'gotcha' but seeing what each party has to say and offer on each topic.

    Not going to happen as it wouldn't be 'must see TV' but it sure would be nice.

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  13. BC Voice of Reason: All four other parties also want the Liberal party to be destroyed and to come in 5th. (or they would all be happy voting Liberal)

    Actually, no.

    As a card-carrying Green, I recognize and salute the past, present and future contributions of the Liberal Party of Canada. Ditto for the NDP. Philosophically, I'm probably closer to the Red Tories than either of those, even if I've moved past all three. I look forward to the day when the CPC shakes off its adversarial, zero-sum-game approach to politics and rediscovers its moral compass.

    Losing any of these parties would lessen Canadian democracy. It's not about crushing people; find a mixed martial arts match if that's what turns your crank. It's about melding different views to create a better Canada (and world) for all of us.

    Is there anything I'd like to see destroyed? Yes: Manichean views of the world. We can't map our path to the future with just black and white crayons.

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  14. "
    Wow! I'd call that one a shocker. "

    Once Kory admitted on P&P that he knew who the hacker that attacked the Avaaz site was Kory was toast.

    As soon as Avazz initiated police action Quebecor had to dump Kory.

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  15. Barcs: The Bloc's reason to be in Ottawa is to get Quebec out of Canada. And failing that they want to do the very best for the province. Get every piece of their fair share (and more if people will give it).

    Believe it or not, it's not always about the money. Sometimes it's about doing the right thing, with the price tag a secondary consideration.

    Look at the Bloc's stances on the long-gun registry, the long-form census and more prisons. Yes, two of these three positions will save Quebec taxpayers money, but the party is taking them because they want a better society for all Canadians--including Quebecers. The tax burden is secondary.

    Going further, look at the Bloc view on unnecessary fighter aircraft. With its large aerospace industry, the province would benefit disproportionately from offsets if the JSF deal went through. The party is still against it because they know that the purchase is wrong. They don't see every political move through a green eyeshade.

    When the Bloc isn't "trying to get Quebec out of Canada", they're trying to make Canada a better place. They haven't earned any love from non-separatists across the country, but they've legitimately earned respect.

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  16. Peter i'm surprised CBC is giving Avazz any publicity at all.

    (Actually no i'm not, they've launched campaigns on behalf of the CBC to protect their funding. BIG TIME conflict of interest there.)

    Let's be clear. They are 100% irrelevent.

    I don't know of any criminal law that was broken because someone put made up names on an internet petition. I really can't think of any.

    And Kory knowing the person is equally irrelevent. He's a journalist. He's under no obligation to give out his sources, even to the police!


    Kory stepping down instantly debunked media conspiracy theories that somehow Harper was connected to this network.

    It clears the way for cabinet to approve their application even if the CRTC does not.

    SunTV is a go!

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  17. John

    The Liberal policies and personalities are so far from what you want that you are in a new party that is directly drawing away from the Liberal cause.

    Your actions are far more egregious towards the Liberals than the CPC.


    The fact that there were any Green voters in the last election when the Liberals had Dion shows a complete irrational dislike of all things Liberal by Green supporters

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  18. And Kory knowing the person is equally irrelevent. He's a journalist.

    NO he is not !! He was VP of Quebecor. You don't even bother to research, You are a twit.

    I don't know of any criminal law that was broken because someone put made up names on an internet petition. I

    Then go read the piece on Kady O'Malley. It is illegal whether you like it or not.

    Once Kory admitted he knew who did it and Avaaz started police action Quebcor became liable for the actions of its employee !! That also is the LAW !!

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  19. Peter get your facts right. Kory was the VP for development of Quebecor Media (QMI agency is only one part of Quebecor Inc.)

    He had control over the content of various media concerns. If he's running down a story for his agency then he's acting as a journalist.

    "Then go read the piece on Kady O'Malley. It is illegal whether you like it or not."

    I have read the request by Avaaz for the RCMP to look into the matter.

    So far they have not said they would. Probably because nothing illegal happened.

    "Once Kory admitted he knew who did it and Avaaz started police action Quebcor became liable for the actions of its employee !! That also is the LAW !!"

    This makes zero sense.

    If someone tells me they committed a crime it doesn't make me guilty or liable or involved in any way.

    I don't know what "actions" of Kory's that Quebecor would be "liable" for considering he never did anything.

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  20. Shadow said:
    "I don't know of any criminal law that was broken because someone put made up names on an internet petition."

    I notice you mention the fake names but don't mention the real people's names added. I'd also point you in the direction of O'Mally's story to help you understand the laws that are alleged to be broken -- both criminal AND civil.

    Shadow also said:
    "Kory stepping down instantly debunked media conspiracy theories that somehow Harper was connected to this network."

    Can you explain how Kory stepping down debunks anything? Do we know he even left voluntarily? If it turns out that he was fired does it still debunk this media conspiracy? All you've done is make a statement and present it as fact.

    Let's be clear - making a statement and presenting it as fact doesn't prove anything. Watch: "Kory stepping down instantly proves media theories that he was the person that added real journalists names to the Avaaz petition." Is that statement true now, simply for having been made?


    Shadow concluded"
    "It clears the way for cabinet to approve their application even if the CRTC does not."

    I didn't even know that was a possibility but I certainly hope it is. I for one could care less if Sun TV is permitted to broadcast here; it's a matter of free speech. I thought the only debate was if it is going to get mandatory carriage or not. If cabinet starts splashing around in this debate it's going to be fantastic.

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  21. The handling of Kory Teynykne is yet another example of of the difference of in the way the Right and Left operate.

    Kory was in a grey area that smacked of skulduggery. Legal or not it was not honorable. --- He is held accountable

    Helen Guergis made some poor decisions and was not willing or unable to accept responsibility on her own. She was held accountable.

    Brian Mulroney was somewhat less than ethical. He and the people he was associated with were severely held accountable. His political party ceased to exist mainly due to the former grassroots of his party and a new right wing party was formed.

    The left, both media and political organizations initially screamed for something to be done about the misconduct of these people and then are taken aback that something is actually done.

    Then we have the left attitude of total unaccountability.

    Chretien and the Quebec wing of the party run an elaborate scam stealing tax payers money. No problem there. No one was accountable and many Liberal Quebec MPs are still being elected after benefiting from the proceeds of the crime.

    Judy Sgro steals money from the taxpayer buy renting the apartment she bought for her her kids. Once caught she stops but her action is condoned with the Liberal party.

    Denis Codere marches with terrorist groups and is held in high esteem by the Liberal party brass and media.

    It is ironic that the Liberal party sense of accountability is so closely aligned with the corrupt southern US Senators and evangelists who they constantly mock.

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  22. "The fact that there were any Green voters in the last election when the Liberals had Dion shows a complete irrational dislike of all things Liberal by Green supporters"

    I don't know why you would say that.... Dion did very little as environment minister... yes he won the fossil award too. His entire credibility on the file (atleast with me) rested on what he said he WOULD do.. since he really had done nothing.



    "The coalition will have no formal agreement with the Bloc because that would be fear-fodder for the Tories."

    You didn't learn form last time? If the tories commit to opposing everything then the only option is the Bloc. it doesn't really matter if there is a paper agreement or not, you are still beholden to them in order to keep the government afloat.



    John.. I don't regard any of those positions you say the bloc has as being of bettering Canadian society, nor is money the only determining factor. The bloc builds its policy on what is best for Quebecers, not what is best for the north, or for BC, or for Alberta, etc. They are Quebecois first and Canadians second.

    Duceppe has stated himself that his position on any given issue.. the way that the bloc will vote is in what is in the best interests of Quebec. Now there is leeway in that, he can pick his issue and say what is best..... money, social issues, business for Quebec businesses, protecting Quebec interests like hydro... etc

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  23. Charles Adler has been signed on by Sun Media to host a Prime Time news show out of Winnipeg.

    This is a game changer. The 25 million Canadians that do not live in Toronto and Ottawa are getting a voice.

    It will be interesting to so if the CBC and CTV scramble to keep up. Do they care about market share?


    Adler has his point of view but is always willing and able to have an interchange of ideas. It will be interesting to see which politicians will go on his show seeing as they will not be given soft ball questions and be forced to answer direct questions and actually present logical explanations to back up their actions.

    No wonder CTV saw that the best that they had in Tom Clark would get eaten alive by real competition. Better to fill in the dead air time with low expectations and Jane Taber.

    Coincidence that Newman gets put out to pasture before being put to shame on the air waves?

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  24. from Barcs:

    "The fact that there were any Green voters in the last election when the Liberals had Dion shows a complete irrational dislike of all things Liberal by Green supporters"

    I don't know why you would say that.... Dion did very little as environment minister... yes he won the fossil award too. His entire credibility on the file (atleast with me) rested on what he said he WOULD do.. since he really had done nothing.


    ==================================

    Dion as environment minister was under the thumb of Chretien. Name a Liberal cabinet minister that did anything that wasn't totally controlled out of the PMO. Paul Martin had to quit to escape the influence.

    There will not be a better chance in a generation to have the Green agenda and policies implemented than they had under a Dion lead government. Elizabeth may would have been a special advisor if not a senator and cabinet.

    My take is the Green are as disgusted with the Liberal brand as are the CPC and BQ and NDP voters.

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  25. God you are full of it.

    QMI is owned by Quebcor, a fact you admit.

    "He had control over the content of various media concerns. If he's running down a story for his agency then he's acting as a journalist."

    NO he is not, he is management!! "Control over content" your words. That's management stupid !!

    "
    If someone tells me they committed a crime it doesn't make me guilty or liable or involved in any way."

    If he is your employee it damned well does !! The law will see the implication that it was done at your orders. Believe me Clayton Ruby, Avaaz attorney, will have a field day with this !!

    "I don't know what "actions" of Kory's that Quebecor would be "liable" for considering he never did anything. "

    By not immediately disclosing and doing everything possible to prevent the Avaaz hack he was complicit in an illegal activity, "Identity Theft", and thus a co-conspirator.

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  26. John

    "I thought the only debate was if it is going to get mandatory carriage or not. "

    They were refused a category one license which carries the mandatory carry proviso.

    They have thus applied for a category 2 license with an added clause of limited time mandatory carry. Three years in this case.

    They have NOT been granted a license and the license hearing is Nov. 19.

    Source: CRTC website

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  27. The handling of Kory Teynykne is yet another example of of the difference of in the way the Right and Left operate.
    Baloney. You cite clear instances of right wing malfeasance, then try to equate them to unproven left wing examples.

    Kind of like Kory.

    He was bounced because he failed to get mandatory carriage, and then he lied about it. He mishandled the Yankee petition against "Fox News North" and by doing so ended up creating a very negative juxtaposition with the NRA's gun registry lobbying.

    Besides, the PMO needs him more, to stanch the hemorrhaging CPC support. Notice how it's kind of gone downhill since he left?

    Sun TV will get its category 2 license, and the category 1 mandatory carriage can be left on the back burner with all the other "when we get the majority" issues, like re-criminalizing abortion, reinstating the death penalty, building lots of prisons, shredding medicare and instituting the surveillance society.

    Now that he has experience in the broadcast industry, Harper can make him the new head of the CRTC, continuing the CPC attack on each and every one of our institutions by stuffing them with party hacks regardless of any other ability.

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  28. Barcs: The bloc builds its policy on what is best for Quebecers, not what is best for the north, or for BC, or for Alberta, etc. They are Quebecois first and Canadians second.

    Duceppe has stated himself that his position on any given issue.. the way that the bloc will vote is in what is in the best interests of Quebec.


    Absolutely. However, in the vast majority of cases what's best for Canada is best for Quebec and vice versa. This is not really surprising; the last time I checked, Quebec was a part of Canada.

    It's wise to not only understand who your enemy is, but also when they're your enemy. You may frequently share goals and aspirations.

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  29. BC Voice of Reason: My take is the Green are as disgusted with the Liberal brand as are the CPC and BQ and NDP voters.

    Didn't somebody mention Manichean world views a few comments ago?

    I wouldn't use the word "disgusted"; "disenchanted" or "disappointed" would be better choices. Greens know that the Liberals can be better than they are today--or were under Dion, for that matter.

    Greens also know that the Tories can be far better than they are today.

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  30. Ok guys, back to the poll eh? As I would have noted last night if my blog was not bounced out,this poll shows the trend that the NDP is bleeding to the libs in Maritimes and Ont, and getting squeezed out in the west by the tories. Has Harper given up on the east and decided to play to his right-wing western base? Maybe he has overplayed his hand with the census and the LG. As Chantal says-the NDP has to hope the LG issue goes away, otherwise they could be reduced to almost 2006 levels. Layton is praying the bill is toast because for once the Liberals look like a party with principles. As for Fox north? Never going to happen. Harper will be gone by after the spring post budget election.

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  31. Peter don't be rude, I was simply correcting your factual error.

    Saying Kory is VP of Quebecor (a company that includes things like Videotron which have nothing to do with Kory) and saying he's VP for media development of QMI Agency are two very different things.

    Let's be clear. Kory was working on a story to run in a Sun newspaper debunkikng the Avaaz petition when he was given this information from a source.

    Working on a story published in a newspaper ?

    That would be journalism. He's allowed to protect his sources.

    As for your crazy conspiracy theory I won't touch that. You've made allegations for which there is ZERO proof.


    Bottom line, today was a huge victory for Kory, SunTV, and the Harper government.

    This clears the way for Sun to go live on jan 1st come hell or high water. There's no longer any ethical issues with having the PM's fmr press secretary working at a media agency.

    Kory did a bang up job firing dead weight like that crank Margolis (he's a truther ya know?) and making new hires like Akin and Lilley.

    And now Harper is going to have a news channel pushing right wing ideas!

    Today was a good day. I laughed so hard when Avaaz said they had won a battle in a long war.

    Those Americans got played!

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  32. "Peter don't be rude, I was simply correcting your factual error."

    Why shouldn't I be when all you do is lie and spin??

    "This clears the way for Sun to go live on jan 1st come hell or high water."

    Does NO license mean anything to you ?? Obviously not or you wouldn't push this nonsense.

    License hearing is Nov. 19. You can expect serious intervention particularly because of the way Sun has set up their request. They want a Category 2 license with a must carry clause added that's good for three years.

    I have grave doubts the CRTC will give them that clause as it is just a way around the NO Category 1 licenses.

    "Avaaz said they had won a battle in a long war.
    "

    Guess what, they did !

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  33. I wouldn't use the word "disgusted"; "disenchanted" or "disappointed" would be better choices.

    You are merely disappointed and/or disenchanted that the Liberals took credit for being a driving force behind Kyoto and did absolutely nothing about it?

    You are merely disappointed and/or disenchanted that the Liberals stole money from the taxpayers and spent it electing current MPs in Quebec and took no responsibility and have not taken any steps to fix the party in 4 years?

    You are merely disappointed and/or disenchanted that the Liberals rationalized the stealing of money as building Canadian unity when in fact it fanned the flames of separatism?

    You sir are very tolerant.

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  34. Why did I vote Green instead of Liberal? Well, for one thing I've never voted Liberal as I don't believe they will actually do anything they say. They exist only for the purpose of having power, forget anything else such as principles. Sadly Harper seems to be of the same ilk.

    I actually was a PC/Reform voter in the past. I switched because I actually read the platform of the Green Party and the CPC and noticed the GPC was far closer to my personal views - government only where external costs exist, logical tax systems that punish bad behavior (such as polluting) and reward good behavior (such as being productive), government staying out of our personal lives as much as possible.

    Dion had the start of the idea with a carbon tax/reduction of income tax, but showed, quite clearly, that he could never execute it nor did he fully 'get it' when he talked of using the carbon tax not just to cut income taxes but to also jump spending. Of course, Harper skyrocketed spending more than anyone dreamed (growing government by 42% from the day he became PM according to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation) and shattered the deficit record thus voting CPC sure didn't mean smart spending or lower overall taxes (skyrocketing payroll taxes for example). Ah, but that was all the other parties fault right? :)

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  35. Ah, but that was all the other parties fault right? :)

    Oh definitely. To read the CPC spinmeisters on here everything is the fault of the other parties and the CPC is without fault.

    And note that Adscam cost way more than the G8/G20 boondoggle, eh?

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  36. "Oh definitely. To read the CPC spinmeisters on here everything is the fault of the other parties and the CPC is without fault."


    ....If you stop spinning long enough peter... and look really hard.... I mean really hard.... You might even find 1 thing somewhere that you cannot attribute to being Harper's fault.

    ...... But you will probably try to spin it that way anyway.

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  37. ....If you stop spinning long enough peter...


    Why should I ? You guys never do even in the face of incontrovertible facts !!

    If you want to I'll bet you couldn't stop spinning if you wanted to !!

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  38. First:

    "Why should I ? You guys never do even in the face of incontrovertible facts !!"

    I assume at some point you will come up with a fact or 2... incontrovertible or otherwise. But I am not going to try holding my breath that long.


    And second:

    "If you want to I'll bet you couldn't stop spinning if you wanted to !!"

    I still cannot tell if you are talking about others... or reading your own comments.

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  39. " still cannot tell if you are talking about others"

    I'm talking directly to you and a couple of others. Get used to it.

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  40. And that'll be the last word - okay?

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