Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Ontario Tories on track for best result since Mike Harris

My coverage of the latest poll from Angus-Reid is available on the Globe & Mail.

Please take a look at it there.


  1. Looks like those of us in ON are not as happy with the HST as people would like to think. Those rising electrical rates are not going down well either. Doesn't look as if we are as green as McGuinty likes to think either.

    Hudak is doing this well and he has hardly said anything about what he would do. Discontent is palpable with McGuinty.

    Good work Eric. Are you now writing for the G&M? Congratulations on your relationship, whatever the terms, with the G&M!


  2. OT:

    New AR national poll:

  3. Not a fan of the McGuinty government but man I think it would be horrible for Hudak to run the show.

  4. Looks like you're moving on up. Congrats.

  5. Earl,

    I've barely heard a whisper about the HST in the last couple of months, so I think the issue has more or less started to pass over. McGuinty's other various problems, ones we know are very existent since this situation is pretty much the same kind you'd see in 2006 in the run-up to the 2007 election.

    Hudak is still fairly distrusted if you read through that article more thoroughly. And given this is an Angus Reid poll, the high 22% for Andrea Horwath's NDP (or should we say Socialists? More accurate statement IMO) is suspicious.

  6. Its not particularly surprising that the ONDP would be at 22%. They got about 17.5% in the last election when the Liberals took 45% across the province. With the Liberals plummeting 16 points to 29% - it stands to reason that a proportion of disaffected Liberals would have the NDP as their second choice as opposed to the PCs. Hence you have the NDP up 5 from 2007 and the PCs up 10 points.

  7. Regarding the AR National Poll that Earl posted:

    The Ignatieff slide is on!

    (As I predicted the Liberal gains over the summer would dissapear once people tuned back into politics.)

  8. The two key underlying questions in that poll are:

    1. Government on right or wrong track:

    Right: 29%
    Wrong: 71%

    2. Management of Economy:

    Good: 35%
    Bad: 65%

    If those numbers continue to hold, then the future does not bode well for the McGuinty Liberal gov't.

  9. By the way, Eric, Angus Reid had the same Ontario results back in December, except even better, with the Conservatives on 41, Liberals on 27, and the NDP on 20.

    Did Mike Harris step down just recently or something? Because if he didn't, then this is Hudak's best lead since December.

  10. Good piece on the Globe Eric

    Now it won't take an awful lot to kick Hudak back where he belongs. The Mike Harris connection makes Hudak extremely susceptible.

    The public hasn't forgotten the Harris years and the real disasters he created.

    Can Mcsquinty get it back? NO The Ont. Libs need a leadership change. Put in a new face and watch them soar back up the polls.

  11. That national AR poll also shows the same NDP weakness we've seen in the most recent Ipsos and Decima polls.

    18 might look like good news, but it's the lowest NDP result Angus Reid has reported since February.

  12. Volkov said...
    "I've barely heard a whisper about the HST in the last couple of months, so I think the issue has more or less started to pass over."

    Maybe. But then again, Ontario voters are going to be hearing a lot about the HST next September, when BC voters have a referendum on the issue two weeks before the next Ontario election. It would be a funny twist if Campbell manages to shank both himself and McGuinty on the HST.

  13. Volkov:

    Did you read the numbers in the Star article that accompanied the poll numbers? 81% said the HST was the wrong thing to do. More people disapproved of that piece of McGuinty's work than anything else. People may or may not talk about the HST but they are thinking about it. Considering the dearth of press coverage here in ON, I'd say it's a big issue just like the Eco-fees that the press didn't cover but that the government had to roll back.

    Don't get me wrong. I voted for McGuinty three times. I won't vote for him again. If it takes four years of Hudak to rid the system of McGuinty's excesses, then so be it. None of my acquaintances care for Hudak either, but we are fed up with the provincial Liberals who have taxed and regulated us to death. Shades of Bob Rae! I don't think a new leader is all that is needed Peter, unless he/she brings a new set of policies with them.

  14. The story is in the first two paragraphs:

    We in Ontario want change!

  15. Earl, Carl,

    I have no doubt that come election time, the HST will be an issue that will sting the Liberals. At the current moment, though, there's a lot more to pick on - just as there was during the interval of 2003-2007, when McGuinty's various flops and flaps on fees, taxes, nanny-state initiatives and etc. had him far, far behind. And let's face it, the modern media runs with whatever is the scandal du jour half the time. I have no doubt Ontarians are PO'd with the HST to an extent (81% is a bit of a stretch to me, but that's Angus Reid for you), but I dunno if it's tops in the minds of voters right now in this between-writ lull.

  16. I don't think a new leader is all that is needed Peter, unless he/she brings a new set of policies with them.

    I suppose I should have said something about that indeed. Yes changes in policy and to a certain extent direction would be needed. But all the angst seems to be aimed at McSquinty so his removal would help a lot.

    HST is a disaster.

  17. The HST is a good idea, and Ontario implemented it well.

    It's a political disaster, but it's good policy.

  18. Ira,

    I agree it's good policy (so was the GST, but what did that do for Mulroney?).

    What McGuinty does have going for him is that the Tories completely mishandled their opposition to it. They couldn't say that they'd repeal it (both because they recognize, in their heart of hearts, that it's good policy - heck it used to be their policy - and because, frankly, they'll need the money), and they haven't said as much. So when they're crapping all over Dalton McGuinty next September about how the HST was a bad idea, he'll just ask if they'll repeal it ("umm, well, let me see..."). In fact, if BC does vote to get rid of the HST (which, at least for now, looks like the most likely outcome) that could put Hudak in a hard place, since he has no intention of doing so.

    What Hudak should have done was limit his criticism of the HST to how McGuinty implemented it. So, he should have criticzed the decision to impose the HST on fuel (which wasn't previously subject to PST) while maintaining the provincial fuel tax. Hudak should have been hopping up and down complaining about how McGuinty is imposing a tax on a tax (as he is) and how he should reduce the provincial fuel tax accordingly. And when McGuinty didn't do that, and gas prices went up 8 cents on July 1, Hudak should have had a press conference in front of the gas station as the prices were being increased. Maybe he'll still try to make that change as part of his election platform, but it'll have less impact.

    Instead, Hudak limited himself (and his people) to more or less unfocused complaining about the HST. You can do that if you're the NDP and comitted to repealing it (a commitment the Ontario NDP can make with a straight-face while still promissing to increase spending, notwithstanding Ontario's already hefty deficit, because (a) they have no chance of ever being in a position to do so and (b) well, they're the Ontario NDP and therefore out of touch with reality), but you can't do that if you're not going to commit to repeal it.


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