Monday, September 13, 2010

PCs extend lead to five points

The latest TJ/CRA shows only incremental change from Saturday's poll but some interesting results over what would have been reported on Sunday if the newspaper was printed.The incremental change from Saturday's poll is that the Progressive Conservatives are up one point to 46%. The Liberals, New Democrats, Greens, and People's Alliance are unchanged at 41%, 9%, 4%, and less than 1% respectively. But what is most interesting is that on the week of polling ending on September 10 the Liberals had sunk to 39% (and the PANB was up to 1%). That was a seven-point gap between the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals.

The undecideds have been reduced to 24%.

While today's result gives the Progressive Conservatives 32 seats to the Liberals' 22 and the NDP's one, that seven point gap would have given the Progressive Conservatives 34 seats to the Liberals' 20 and the NDP's one. Either way you slice it, a sizable majority for David Alward.

Speaking of Alward, his popularity is on the rise. He was at 25% in Saturday's poll but has risen three points to 28%. Shawn Graham is unchanged at 25% (though he did dip to 24%), as is Roger Duguay at 7%. Jack MacDougall has slipped one point to 4% and Kris Austin remains at 1%.

Removing the undecideds and none-of-the-aboves, that gives Alward 43%, or just below his party's support. Graham is at 38% while Duguay is at 11%. The NDP still has some room for growth. MacDougall would have 6% and Austin 2%.

So the race is starting to become one-sided, at least according to the Corporate Research Associates' polling. This week's debates (two in English and two in French) could either solidify Alward's lead or get Graham back into the race. Who knows, it might even push Duguay up into the double-digits again.


  1. New IR poll:

    While harper has commanding leads in western Canada and doesn't do badly in Quebec, relatively speaking, he is eight points behind in the bread basket of seats - Ontario. It is Ontario where he is dying the death of a thousand cuts. Bricker says it would be touch and go for the CPC to form the next government. Something Harper needs to learn is that it doesn't much matter if he gets 55% or 61% of the vote in Alberta ,if he is sacrificing support in Ontario. That's pretty much what has happened.

  2. Eric as you know I called the election in NB for the PC's last week. The reason was that Alward gained credence as a possible Premier. I know he was not personally popular in NB and as we now see his gains in credibility are translating into seats and popular vote for his party. With the debates still to I might have been early and may still be.

  3. Having a five-party debate in NB should be interesting. I'm glad that the Greens and People's Alliance are being included, even if they have a less-than-zero chance of winning a seat.

    With regard to the poll numbers, it looks like the election is starting to break pretty heavily in the PC's favour. Graham is going to have to deliver one hell of a performance in the debates to turn things around - and with 4 opposition leaders piling on him, that won't be easy. Of course, with this kind of trend against an incumbent government in NB, it may not matter. In fact, the Liberals were in better shape at this point in their ultimately-disastrous 1999 campaign than they are now.

  4. I've been expecting the tories to win for the past year or two

  5. Big News:

    BC to pull out of HST if no side wins majority in referendum:

    Finally politicians listening to the people. This move will put further pressure on all of ON's political parties!

  6. ridingBYriding: I've been thinking that the PC's would win as well. When Graham signed the sale of NB Power to Hydro Quebec I thought he was done. However my brother-in-law who lives in NB advised me that Alward was not well liked and that that could keep Graham in power. That's why when I saw Alward catch up to Graham I thought the tide had turned.

  7. Earl I don't think Harper needs your strategy tips.

    Ontario and Quebec numbers are always the first to go down when Harper slips in the polls.

    They're also the first to go up when he inevitably climbs up again.

    Its not an either-or proposition.

    If the CPC is doing well they should expect 55+ in Alberta AND a lead in Ontario.

    If they are doing poorly they keep Alberta and lose Ontario.

    That's kind of sorta the defintion of a "base".

  8. Shadow we have a definite difference of opinion. Harper would do well to listen to me. The core vote has nowhere to go. The more moderate voters of ON and Quebec do.

    Finally no politician with any sense does something like the census decision, to appease a small number of his core vote, while alienating a large portion of the moderates whom vote for him/her. It was a disastrous decision. Hopefully it won't be fatal. And hopefully it will be followed by some common sense and not the nonsense you preach!

    BTW, I find the term "base" very American. It comes directly from the GOP and Karl Rove. It's unfortunate you feel compelled to use it in the context of Canadian Politics.

  9. Earl the idea that Harper is deliberately setting out to sacrifice ON/QC seats to run up super majorities in AB ridings is laughable.

    Nobody needs to tell Harper how to win a majority. A bright five year old could tell you that you need to do well in either ON or QC to win a majority.

    You're taking one bad poll, where the regional numbers are reverting to the mean, as evidence that you've now discovered Harper's secret plan to run up big wins in his Alberta ridings.

    Its not his plan. Its a bad poll.


    The census decision was bad politics.

    It was also the right thing to do. Once in awhile I like it when politicians do the right.

    And the decision was neither disastrous or fatal. You are being overly dramatic. Stop sweating the small stuff, every week you're on here hyperventilating over some made up media story that nobody remembers after a month or two.


    Karl Rove didn't invent the term "base". I believe its short for power base which has been around for awhile.

    If we're going to restrict ourselves to using words invented in Canada we'll all be speaking Cree.

  10. Shadow:

    "Earl the idea that Harper is deliberately setting out to sacrifice ON/QC seats to run up super majorities in AB ridings is laughable."

    Indeed it is and that is not what I said. What I am saying is that in an attempt to appeal to his core constituency Harper is alienating the more moderate voters of ON and QC. Is it is intentional? Absolutely not. It reflects a lack of understanding and a myopic view of the nation.

  11. daniel, a 5 party debacle is not a debate... its usually a yelling or pissing match. It also allows easier avoiding of questions.

    Too many voices.

    What we need is several debates with no more than 2-3 people. Mix in the 2 or (3) leaders with little chance to win. Have one with the main 2,... one with the other 3... mix it up with one of the main and 2 of the minor... etc.

    Give us a chance to actually make out what people are talking about, and more chance to hear what they have to say.


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