Monday, September 13, 2010

New projection for New Brunswick Election

As you can see, I've made a new projection for the New Brunswick election, putting the Progressive Conservatives in the slimmest of majorities.

This is because I will now be incorporating CRA's daily tracking poll into the projection. Earlier, my only two New Brunswick polls were the ones that completed polling September 1 and September 8, as those were the two polls that did not overlap with one another.

That last poll ending on September 8 is overlapped by every new poll released by the Telegraph-Journal and CRA, and that is why I haven't been adding it to the projection. But that makes it a little stale.

So, instead of waiting until Friday to add a new poll to the projection, I will be replacing that September 8 poll with each daily poll, and doing so on a daily basis. When Friday rolls around and I have a poll with seven completely new days of polling ending on September 15, the poll ending on September 8 will be returned to the projection and the September 15 poll will be replaced on a daily basis until the poll ending on September 22 is released, and so on.

I hope that makes sense. This will make the projection more up-to-date, which is especially necessary considering I don't have any other province-wide polls to add to the projection.

Doing this, the projection has now shifted to 28 seats for the Progressive Conservatives (up two), 26 for the Liberals (down two), and one for the New Democrats (unchanged).

The Progressive Conservatives are now projected to take 42% of the vote (up 0.4) while the Liberals will take 41.8% (down 0.5). The NDP is at 11.5% (up 0.2) and the Greens are at 3.7% (up 0.2). The People's Alliance and independents will take 1.1% of the vote.

With tomorrow's TJ/CRA poll, I will compare it both to today's projection and the projection I made on September 10 so that people aren't lost in the updates.