Thursday, September 16, 2010

Two landslides and one close race

Earlier this month, Corporate Research Associates released new polls for Newfoundland & Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia. So, to go along with these polls I put together some projection models for these three Atlantic provinces.

As a point of reference, the last set of CRA polls for these provinces were taken in May 2010.

We'll start with Newfoundland & Labrador, where Danny Williams continues to reign supreme.Since that last poll, the Progressive Conservatives are up one point to a staggering 76%. The Liberals are, oh, 59 points behind at 17%. However, they are up one. The NDP is down one to 7%.

Danny Williams is considered the best man to be Premier by 77% of Newfoundlanders & Labradorians (up two). Yvonne Jones of the Liberals garners 11% (unchanged) while Lorraine Michael of the NDP is at 6% (up two).

With this poll, the Progressive Conservatives would win 47 seats - all but one, which goes to the NDP. Ms. Michael's seat is safe enough, even with these numbers.

On to Prince Edward Island, where the Ghizzes rule.

Here, the Liberals are at 61%, unchanged from May. The Progressive Conservatives are up three points to 30%, while the Island New Democrats are down two to 6%. The Greens are down one to 2%.Robert Ghiz, Premier of the province, is considered the best man for the job by 45% (down two). The next PC leader (there isn't one now) got 17%, up one. Good for him or her! James Rodd of the Island New Democrats was at 4% while Sharon Labchuk was at 2%, each down one.

In terms of seats, the Liberals stand to win all 27.

Finally, Nova Scotia. Unlike the other two, there is a real race in the province. Darrell Dexter of the New Democrats has had a rocky time since he became premier in 2009, and it appears that he is still struggling - at least a little.But things haven't changed much since May. The New Democrats and Liberals are still at 37% and 35%, respectively. The Progressive Conservatives have dropped three points and are now at 21%.

The Greens are up three to 7%.

Despite his lead in the polls, Dexter doesn't lead the Best Premier numbers. Instead, Stephen McNeil of the Liberals is in front with 31%, up two. Dexter is at 27%, up three. The PCs are hurt by the fact that they don't have a leader, but nevertheless 16% (down two) think the next PC leader will be the best man for the job. Ryan Watson of the Greens is at 5%, up three.

Now this is where it gets interesting. With these close numbers, I project that the New Democrats would form a minority government with 25 seats. The Liberals would win 21 and the Progressive Conservatives would win six.

So, that brings us up to date in Atlantic Canada. Now we just need to see whether the second Liberal or second Progressive Conservative government will be elected in the region by New Brunswickers.

7 comments:

  1. Not surprised about any of these results; PEI and Newfoundland tend to get the pseudo-dictatorships (as in, they overwhelmingly support their leader, or they'll overwhelmingly oppose them), and Nova Scotia has tended to have some close races on a constant basis.

    For someone like myself, Nova Scotia presents a very good opportunity for the Liberals to demonstrate that, hey, these New Democrats aren't so high and mighty after all - here's another progressive option that is giving them a strong opposition and a good running in the polls.

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  2. While I like your projection for Newfoundland and Labrador a lot it is unlikely that even with those numbers Yvonne Jones would lose her seat. I know you have your way of figuring this stuff out but this woman I'd say is unbeatable and her seat is just as safe or maybe even safer then Danny's.

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  3. It gets tough with these individual cases. My numbers show she'd lose, but of course that doesn't mean she would. And, of course, this poll doesn't mean that the PCs would get 76% in an election campaign.

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  4. Interesting how they define themselves as Progressive Conservatives instead of CPC ?

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  5. I know it's a complicated system and it doesn't look at individual districts, it's weird though that her support increased in the last election by a wide margin and I believe she got something like 72% support but she'd actually lose. Especially when Loraine Michael would keep her seat even though she doesn't win that high of a percentage., I guess it's just the fact that in this poll the NDP's support has remained fairly stable and the Liberals are down a good bit.

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  6. Re: Peter

    I was about to write that they would consider themselves Canadian Progressive Conservatives, then I realised you meant Conservative Party of Canada. I wonder if the Progressive Conservatives ever called themselves PCPC, PCP, or CPCP.

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  7. Peter: Interesting how they define themselves as Progressive Conservatives instead of CPC ?

    It would be strange if they did otherwise. The federal party changed its name as part of the takeover. That didn't happen in any of the provinces. Alberta, Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador... take your pick across the country. They're PCs, no matter where they sit on the spectrum.

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