Thursday, September 16, 2010

PCs now at 50%

Today's TJ/CRA poll puts David Alward's Progressive Conservatives at the lofty height of 50%. The party is fully in control now, but with 12 days left in the campaign, can they hold on to their lead?This is a gain of one point for the party, and the gap between them in the Liberals is now 13 points. They are unchanged at 37%. The New Democrats are down a point to 9%.

The Greens and People's Alliance are unchanged at 4% and less than 1%, respectively.

While the first round of debates took place on September 14, I don't think we will start to see any "debate effect" until tomorrow.

An interesting thing to note about this poll is that the amount of undecided voters has been reduced to 21%. It is still a significant amount, but remember that the number of undecideds was more than 2 in 5 at the beginning of the campaign.

With this 13-point gap, the Progressive Conservatives would have an easy time of it, electing 42 MLAs. The Liberals would elect 12 and the New Democrats one.

David Alward is now the choice for Best Premier of 31% of New Brunswickers, up two from yesterday. Shawn Graham is up one to 25% while Roger Duguay is holding steady at 7%. Jack MacDougall and Kris Austin are down one point apiece to 2% and less than 1%, respectively.

Taking out the undecideds and none-of-the-aboves, that gives Alward 48%, Graham 38%, and Duguay 11%. While Graham started the campaign less popular than his own party, that seems to have changed.

In terms of the site's projection, the Progressive Conservatives are up 0.3 points to 43.1%. The Liberals are steady at 40.8% and the New Democrats are down 0.3 points to 11.4%.

The Progressive Conservatives are still projected to win 29 seats, while the Liberals are up to 25, one more than yesterday. That seat gain came from the NDP, who is back down to one seat.

4 comments:

  1. The graph above shows clearly why the Federal Liberals will not ever defeat the Harper government and force an election.

    I am shocked that the pollsters had it so close before and when the election was called.

    Are they adjusting their polling methods to better reflect reality. Common sense was that the Liberals were not fit to govern.

    The Liberal brand is toxic coast to coast.

    Gordon Campbell is in trouble basically because of the Liberal name even though he is more right wing than Stelmach.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Wow, is it really this bad for the Grits out there?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Not sure what BC Voice of Reason is getting at with his post - the state of the federal parties has had absolutely, positively NO relevance to the political discussion here in NB.

    Anyway, it looks we're staring down a PC landslide - sure, the Liberals COULD theoretically make a bit of a come back, but come on, who are we kidding? Graham and his government have been poisonously unpopular for quite some time, and the only thing that had really kept the Liberals above 40% was the fact that Alward was a great big question mark. Now, even the leadership numbers favour the PCs.

    Outside onlookers may be mystified as to why the PCs have suddenly broken away like this, but for anyone who's been here on the ground for the past couple of years, this is simply a case of the polling numbers finally catching up to the zeitgeist.

    ReplyDelete
  4. daniel -- Outside onlookers may be mystified as to why the PCs have suddenly broken away like this, but for anyone who's been here on the ground for the past couple of years, this is simply a case of the polling numbers finally catching up to the zeitgeist.


    your comment succinctly emphasizes my point. The the federal Liberals have no policies, no members, no fund raising ability, a leader that no one trusts and yet are polling the very close to the CPC.

    I am saying that once the election is called we will have another example of "a case of the polling numbers finally catching up to the zeitgeist"

    We will be astonished on how the pollsters missed it.

    ReplyDelete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.